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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for January Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Jul 11, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Tested Years   43 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   22 25 23 21 22 18 24 17 20 21 20
Exceeded High   16 20 18 17 17 12 20 14 15 17 14
Scenario Percentage   73% 80% 78% 81% 77% 67% 83% 82% 75% 81% 70%
Avg Max Increase   7.17% 9.90% 14.31% 12.44% 11.49% 11.32% 10.63% 13.18% 10.03% 9.34% 5.06%
Max Increase   13.47% 32.65% 49.76% 30.42% 30.14% 27.74% 39.04% 27.86% 22.29% 28.44% 9.14%
Avg Days To Max Increase   19 13 15 15 16 17 16 14 17 11 9
Avg Max Decline   -1.83% -2.08% -1.60% -2.28% -1.96% -3.14% -1.54% -2.21% -2.52% -2.59% -1.38%
Max Decline   -5.39% -7.65% -6.28% -6.47% -10.72% -5.93% -8.77% -7.34% -7.95% -6.63% -4.98%
Avg Days to Max Decline   13 12 7 8 7 10 6 7 6 9 4
2025 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes       Yes     Yes
Action     Yes Yes No       Yes     Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Tested Years   43 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   21 20 22 24 23 27 21 28 23 23 24
Penetrated Low   12 14 17 22 21 21 17 26 18 18 15
Scenario Percentage   57% 70% 77% 92% 91% 78% 81% 93% 78% 78% 63%
Avg Max Decline   6.38% 5.21% 7.07% 6.55% 8.85% 7.66% 7.99% 5.93% 6.67% 7.23% 4.01%
Max Decline   13.12% 13.62% 13.36% 17.41% 17.48% 24.27% 33.80% 17.03% 14.18% 25.56% 9.43%
Avg Days To Max Decline   15 20 19 19 19 18 13 13 16 10 8
Avg Max Increase   -1.84% -2.84% -2.43% -4.47% -2.88% -2.13% -2.37% -2.02% -2.64% -2.06% -1.14%
Max Increase   -4.08% -9.10% -9.60% -15.72% -12.47% -8.22% -6.71% -7.02% -10.96% -6.23% -4.60%
Avg Days to Max Increase   9 12 13 12 6 8 9 9 7 8 3
2025 Contract Condition   Yes       Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes  
Action   No       Yes Yes No   Yes Yes  
High 375.10 363.10 355.20 362.60 382.30 361.00 336.70 335.20 346.80 348.70 304.50 308.40
Low 351.20 334.90 336.10 337.40 351.80 336.40 307.90 300.40 311.50 300.70 287.00 278.50
Close/Last 362.70 338.50 347.40 356.10 360.20 336.60 316.60 313.90 341.90 301.30 291.90 307.60

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