MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Aug 18, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		23	24	22	22	22	18	25	18	20	21	20
Exceeded High		16	20	17	18	17	12	21	15	14	14	11
Scenario Percentage		70%	83%	77%	82%	77%	67%	84%	83%	70%	67%	55%
Avg Max Increase		7.49%	9.75%	14.72%	12.68%	11.49%	11.32%	10.87%	13.47%	10.02%	9.73%	4.63%
Max Increase		13.47%	32.65%	49.76%	30.42%	30.14%	27.74%	39.04%	27.86%	22.29%	28.44%	6.64%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	14	16	15	16	17	15	15	17	12	9
Avg Max Decline		-1.77%	-2.12%	-1.63%	-2.20%	-1.96%	-3.14%	-1.32%	-1.91%	-2.62%	-2.21%	-1.19%
Max Decline		-5.39%	-7.65%	-6.28%	-6.47%	-10.72%	-5.93%	-3.63%	-7.34%	-7.95%	-5.87%	-4.98%
Avg Days to Max Decline		13	13	8	7	7	10	5	6	6	7	4
2023 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes
Action		No	No			Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		20	21	23	23	23	27	20	27	23	23	24
Penetrated Low		12	15	17	22	21	21	17	25	17	17	12
Scenario Percentage		60%	71%	74%	96%	91%	78%	85%	93%	74%	74%	50%
Avg Max Decline		6.38%	5.04%	6.53%	6.55%	8.64%	7.49%	7.99%	6.02%	6.62%	7.29%	3.11%
Max Decline		13.12%	13.62%	13.36%	17.41%	17.48%	24.27%	33.80%	17.03%	14.18%	25.56%	8.64%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	20	17	19	19	17	13	13	16	9	6
Avg Max Increase		-1.84%	-2.67%	-2.39%	-4.47%	-2.84%	-1.87%	-2.37%	-2.10%	-2.73%	-2.05%	-0.84%
Max Increase		-4.08%	-9.10%	-9.60%	-15.72%	-12.47%	-8.22%	-6.71%	-7.02%	-10.96%	-6.23%	-2.76%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	11	13	12	6	9	9	9	7	6	3
2023 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes
Action				Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes		Not Yet
High	388.50	433.50	429.30	424.40	416.50	416.50	428.40	430.90	437.40	430.00	421.80	481.80
Low	364.10	380.20	397.00	398.40	385.20	383.00	375.90	392.00	400.80	391.10	399.00	415.20
Close/Last	381.10	397.70	406.10	401.70	400.10	405.90	416.70	409.90	401.30	419.10	417.80	478.50