MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Sep 16, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		23	23	23	23	21	17	25	19	20	22	20
Exceeded High		17	20	18	19	16	11	21	16	14	16	13
Scenario Percentage		74%	87%	78%	83%	76%	65%	84%	84%	70%	73%	65%
Avg Max Increase		7.27%	9.75%	14.43%	12.33%	11.82%	11.90%	10.87%	14.08%	9.93%	9.60%	4.57%
Max Increase		13.47%	32.65%	49.76%	30.42%	30.14%	27.74%	39.04%	27.86%	22.29%	28.44%	9.14%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	14	15	15	15	17	15	15	16	11	9
Avg Max Decline		-2.08%	-2.12%	-1.75%	-2.13%	-1.62%	-2.88%	-1.32%	-1.91%	-2.30%	-2.53%	-1.45%
Max Decline		-6.97%	-7.65%	-6.28%	-6.47%	-10.72%	-5.43%	-3.63%	-7.34%	-7.95%	-6.63%	-4.98%
Avg Days to Max Decline		13	13	8	7	7	10	5	7	5	8	5
2022 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes							Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes							Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		20	22	22	22	24	28	20	26	23	22	24
Penetrated Low		12	16	16	21	22	22	16	24	17	17	14
Scenario Percentage		60%	73%	73%	95%	92%	79%	80%	92%	74%	77%	58%
Avg Max Decline		6.38%	5.13%	6.64%	6.57%	9.45%	7.65%	8.20%	6.17%	6.62%	7.29%	3.70%
Max Decline		13.12%	13.62%	13.36%	17.41%	26.42%	24.27%	33.80%	17.03%	14.18%	25.56%	9.18%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	20	17	20	19	17	14	14	16	9	7
Avg Max Increase		-1.84%	-3.00%	-2.30%	-4.49%	-2.50%	-1.86%	-2.10%	-2.11%	-2.73%	-2.05%	-0.97%
Max Increase		-4.08%	-9.10%	-9.60%	-15.72%	-12.47%	-8.22%	-4.58%	-7.02%	-10.96%	-6.23%	-3.60%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	12	12	11	6	9	8	9	7	6	3
2022 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No
High	391.80	385.10	394.50	414.90	423.60	402.00	391.80	367.20	349.20	334.00	375.90	422.30
Low	354.20	357.50	363.10	384.70	376.40	347.30	349.00	346.30	330.70	311.20	326.70	340.70
Close/Last	359.80	375.50	394.20	398.10	391.90	380.10	355.10	347.00	331.00	330.40	341.80	411.70