MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2018
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		40	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		20	22	23	25	22	17	27	17	20	22	19
Exceeded High		15	18	18	21	17	12	22	14	15	12	11
Scenario Percentage		75%	82%	78%	84%	77%	71%	81%	82%	75%	55%	58%
Avg Max Increase		7.46%	10.14%	20.05%	14.70%	13.02%	12.19%	10.37%	16.07%	12.90%	11.75%	4.00%
Max Increase		13.47%	32.65%	61.68%	35.46%	31.68%	27.74%	39.04%	27.86%	62.93%	49.07%	6.64%
Avg Days To Max Increase		20	15	17	14	15	15	15	14	17	12	8
Avg Max Decline		-1.93%	-1.62%	-1.99%	-2.73%	-1.76%	-3.36%	-1.27%	-2.58%	-2.55%	-1.92%	-1.39%
Max Decline		-6.97%	-4.70%	-6.47%	-18.88%	-10.72%	-12.55%	-3.63%	-7.34%	-7.95%	-5.87%	-4.98%
Avg Days to Max Decline		12	12	7	8	5	8	5	5	6	5	4
2017 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	No				No	Not Yet

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		40	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		20	22	22	20	23	28	18	28	23	22	25
Penetrated Low		12	15	16	18	20	21	14	25	17	17	13
Scenario Percentage		60%	68%	73%	90%	87%	75%	78%	89%	74%	77%	52%
Avg Max Decline		6.41%	5.04%	7.30%	6.49%	9.89%	7.75%	10.70%	7.01%	8.41%	8.50%	3.53%
Max Decline		13.12%	13.62%	13.36%	17.41%	26.42%	24.27%	33.80%	18.75%	25.58%	25.56%	8.64%
Avg Days To Max Decline		12	18	16	19	17	16	15	15	16	10	5
Avg Max Increase		-1.57%	-2.90%	-2.26%	-4.76%	-2.62%	-1.79%	-1.76%	-2.20%	-2.35%	-2.27%	-0.91%
Max Increase		-4.08%	-9.10%	-9.60%	-15.72%	-12.47%	-8.22%	-4.58%	-7.02%	-7.48%	-6.23%	-2.76%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	10	10	12	5	8	8	9	5	6	3
2017 Contract Condition		Yes					Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action		No					Yes	Yes	No			Yes
High	284.80	282.30	284.50	330.10	370.90	413.80	397.60	342.70	319.50	329.80	329.30	328.00
Low	275.70	268.70	270.20	275.30	325.50	361.10	326.80	304.00	295.40	296.80	306.70	307.10
Close/Last	280.70	271.20	279.60	327.60	365.30	396.60	343.70	305.50	300.20	317.90	318.30	312.90