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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for May Soybeans(CBOT) as of Jul 11, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   20 20 21 19 23 26 21 22 24 26 25
Exceeded High   15 12 16 13 19 18 18 19 21 21 14
Scenario Percentage   75% 60% 76% 68% 83% 69% 86% 86% 88% 81% 56%
Avg Max Increase   11.46% 10.95% 9.02% 10.69% 7.92% 7.04% 8.69% 8.31% 7.68% 8.28% 4.77%
Max Increase   49.09% 30.88% 30.28% 20.56% 26.01% 22.99% 30.41% 29.29% 14.97% 22.90% 9.35%
Avg Days To Max Increase   15 15 15 18 21 14 16 16 16 14 10
Avg Max Decline   -0.49% -2.39% -0.86% -2.02% -2.58% -2.01% -2.33% -1.93% -1.72% -1.74% -1.14%
Max Decline   -3.82% -6.74% -3.23% -5.75% -10.89% -5.30% -9.44% -7.40% -5.45% -5.01% -2.62%
Avg Days to Max Decline   5 6 4 6 8 8 11 8 7 9 2
2025 Contract Condition         Yes     Yes Yes     Yes
Action         No     Yes Yes     Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   25 25 24 26 22 19 24 23 21 19 20
Penetrated Low   22 21 12 24 17 12 21 19 16 17 7
Scenario Percentage   88% 84% 50% 92% 77% 63% 88% 83% 76% 89% 35%
Avg Max Decline   8.80% 7.10% 8.90% 6.25% 6.73% 6.76% 5.65% 5.17% 4.87% 4.68% 4.01%
Max Decline   15.90% 24.91% 36.89% 21.59% 17.79% 12.61% 16.45% 15.05% 8.92% 11.73% 7.22%
Avg Days To Max Decline   16 16 10 13 15 17 17 15 12 10 10
Avg Max Increase   -2.58% -1.94% -0.66% -1.57% -2.03% -2.46% -2.07% -2.07% -2.44% -1.35% -1.10%
Max Increase   -10.08% -11.53% -2.67% -7.24% -6.17% -7.48% -6.92% -7.36% -7.12% -4.57% -2.27%
Avg Days to Max Increase   6 8 5 4 4 12 12 8 8 2 2
2025 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes     Yes Yes  
Action   Yes Yes No   Yes Yes     Yes Yes  
High 1236.50 1199.75 1158.75 1083.00 1112.25 1110.50 1067.25 1023.25 1088.00 1092.50 1036.50 1058.00
Low 1170.75 1126.00 1059.50 1005.50 1041.00 1007.75 995.25 955.50 996.25 1025.00 991.00 969.50
Close/Last 1199.50 1130.25 1068.50 1045.25 1101.50 1026.00 1008.50 1022.25 1057.50 1025.75 1014.75 1034.75

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