MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Soybeans(CBOT) as of Sep 16, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		20	18	22	21	23	26	21	22	26	26	26
Exceeded High		14	11	18	15	18	17	17	19	22	20	14
Scenario Percentage		70%	61%	82%	71%	78%	65%	81%	86%	85%	77%	54%
Avg Max Increase		11.70%	11.70%	9.06%	11.14%	8.33%	7.21%	9.53%	8.75%	8.54%	8.35%	4.36%
Max Increase		49.09%	30.88%	30.28%	20.56%	26.01%	22.99%	30.41%	29.29%	26.59%	22.90%	9.35%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	16	16	19	20	14	17	16	16	14	8
Avg Max Decline		-0.50%	-1.99%	-1.06%	-2.06%	-2.65%	-1.95%	-2.22%	-1.86%	-1.62%	-1.57%	-1.14%
Max Decline		-3.82%	-5.59%	-3.73%	-5.75%	-10.89%	-5.30%	-9.44%	-7.40%	-5.45%	-4.88%	-2.62%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	6	4	6	7	9	11	7	6	9	2
2022 Contract Condition		Yes						Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		No						Yes	Yes	No		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		25	27	23	24	22	19	24	23	19	19	19
Penetrated Low		22	22	12	22	17	11	21	18	14	17	7
Scenario Percentage		88%	81%	52%	92%	77%	58%	88%	78%	74%	89%	37%
Avg Max Decline		9.27%	7.13%	8.90%	6.69%	6.52%	6.90%	5.26%	5.01%	5.72%	4.44%	3.25%
Max Decline		25.71%	24.91%	36.89%	21.59%	17.79%	12.61%	16.45%	15.05%	13.88%	10.07%	6.05%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	16	10	13	15	17	16	15	11	10	7
Avg Max Increase		-2.19%	-1.96%	-0.66%	-1.59%	-2.04%	-2.60%	-2.14%	-2.19%	-2.00%	-1.25%	-1.20%
Max Increase		-10.08%	-11.53%	-2.67%	-7.24%	-6.17%	-7.48%	-6.92%	-7.36%	-4.36%	-4.57%	-3.00%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	8	5	5	5	13	12	8	8	2	2
2022 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No				Yes
High	1401.00	1434.00	1390.75	1372.25	1325.50	1292.25	1308.50	1391.00	1501.50	1759.25	1736.50	1757.50
Low	1303.25	1228.75	1276.75	1286.75	1273.25	1215.50	1204.50	1232.00	1351.75	1490.00	1613.50	1576.75
Close/Last	1345.75	1365.00	1345.25	1310.75	1278.50	1268.25	1235.25	1349.00	1495.25	1636.75	1618.25	1708.25