MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Soybeans(CBOT) as of Nov 09, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		20	18	22	21	23	25	20	22	26	26	26
Exceeded High		15	11	18	14	18	16	16	18	22	20	14
Scenario Percentage		75%	61%	82%	67%	78%	64%	80%	82%	85%	77%	54%
Avg Max Increase		13.05%	11.41%	9.14%	10.67%	7.11%	6.24%	8.32%	9.19%	9.59%	8.68%	4.97%
Max Increase		49.09%	30.88%	30.28%	20.56%	21.06%	22.99%	23.26%	29.29%	37.62%	22.90%	9.35%
Avg Days To Max Increase		14	16	15	19	20	14	16	17	16	15	10
Avg Max Decline		-0.60%	-1.79%	-1.02%	-2.14%	-3.10%	-1.93%	-2.44%	-1.89%	-1.53%	-1.29%	-1.06%
Max Decline		-3.82%	-5.59%	-3.73%	-5.75%	-10.89%	-5.30%	-9.44%	-7.40%	-5.45%	-4.88%	-2.62%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	5	4	7	8	9	11	7	5	8	2
2020 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes
Action		No			Yes	No		Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		25	27	23	24	22	20	25	23	19	19	19
Penetrated Low		22	22	12	22	17	12	21	18	14	17	7
Scenario Percentage		88%	81%	52%	92%	77%	60%	84%	78%	74%	89%	37%
Avg Max Decline		9.27%	7.08%	9.52%	6.64%	6.96%	7.07%	5.26%	5.01%	5.72%	4.44%	4.01%
Max Decline		25.71%	24.91%	36.89%	21.59%	17.79%	12.61%	16.45%	15.05%	13.88%	11.73%	7.22%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	15	11	13	16	17	16	15	11	10	10
Avg Max Increase		-2.19%	-1.89%	-1.16%	-1.74%	-2.03%	-2.70%	-2.14%	-2.19%	-2.00%	-1.25%	-1.20%
Max Increase		-10.08%	-11.53%	-7.06%	-7.24%	-6.17%	-7.48%	-6.92%	-7.36%	-4.36%	-4.57%	-3.00%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	7	6	5	5	12	12	8	8	2	2
2020 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	No			Yes		Yes		Yes	Not Yet
High	942.50	965.75	962.75	933.25	940.00	978.00	966.50	969.00	973.50	910.25	912.50	887.25
Low	854.00	907.75	919.25	890.75	891.00	936.50	905.25	898.00	886.50	878.25	821.00	808.25
Close/Last	928.00	947.75	920.50	904.50	939.00	957.00	905.75	968.75	886.75	892.75	886.00	850.25