MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Soybeans(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2013
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		41	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		18	18	23	20	25	25	23	23	24	26	26
Exceeded High		15	12	19	13	19	16	20	17	21	19	13
Scenario Percentage		83%	67%	83%	65%	76%	64%	87%	74%	88%	73%	50%
Avg Max Increase		11.99%	10.92%	8.85%	11.67%	7.49%	7.62%	9.63%	11.83%	10.96%	8.17%	6.81%
Max Increase		49.09%	30.88%	30.28%	20.56%	21.53%	22.99%	50.30%	42.93%	37.62%	22.90%	30.26%
Avg Days To Max Increase		13	17	18	19	20	17	19	18	18	14	9
Avg Max Decline		-0.51%	-3.89%	-1.13%	-2.37%	-2.63%	-1.86%	-2.31%	-1.63%	-2.01%	-1.30%	-0.69%
Max Decline		-2.63%	-18.59%	-3.73%	-5.75%	-10.89%	-5.30%	-9.44%	-7.40%	-13.01%	-4.88%	-1.60%
Avg Days to Max Decline		2	7	7	7	6	9	10	6	6	8	2
2012 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	No		No		Yes		Yes	Yes	Not Yet

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		41	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		23	26	22	25	20	20	22	22	21	19	19
Penetrated Low		19	20	15	22	16	14	18	17	16	15	8
Scenario Percentage		83%	77%	68%	88%	80%	70%	82%	77%	76%	79%	42%
Avg Max Decline		9.53%	6.38%	9.22%	7.03%	7.77%	7.99%	7.29%	5.99%	5.96%	4.18%	4.06%
Max Decline		25.71%	24.91%	36.89%	21.59%	17.79%	29.10%	30.39%	20.77%	15.50%	15.46%	7.58%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	15	12	13	16	13	17	13	11	11	8
Avg Max Increase		-2.25%	-2.09%	-1.11%	-2.03%	-2.49%	-1.75%	-2.34%	-1.80%	-1.98%	-0.95%	-1.28%
Max Increase		-10.08%	-11.53%	-7.06%	-7.24%	-7.02%	-3.83%	-6.92%	-6.25%	-4.42%	-4.57%	-3.00%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	9	6	6	6	8	12	6	8	2	2
2012 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes		Yes		Yes
Action		Yes			Yes		Yes		No
High	1380.00	1402.00	1415.50	1468.50	1465.75	1291.75	1248.75	1227.75	1253.75	1324.25	1416.00	1509.00
Low	1299.00	1303.50	1312.00	1299.25	1202.00	1181.50	1121.75	1115.50	1160.00	1211.25	1306.25	1403.75
Close/Last	1362.50	1308.25	1376.25	1462.00	1204.50	1236.00	1151.00	1217.50	1208.50	1320.00	1403.00	1503.00