MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Soybeans(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2009
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		37	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		17	17	23	22	24	25	22	24	22	24	24
Exceeded High		14	10	19	14	19	16	18	18	19	18	12
Scenario Percentage		82%	59%	83%	64%	79%	64%	82%	75%	86%	75%	50%
Avg Max Increase		12.56%	10.65%	8.23%	10.44%	6.71%	7.73%	10.18%	11.36%	11.06%	7.39%	6.60%
Max Increase		49.09%	30.88%	30.28%	16.63%	21.53%	22.99%	50.30%	42.93%	37.62%	20.48%	30.26%
Avg Days To Max Increase		14	15	16	19	19	19	19	18	18	13	9
Avg Max Decline		-0.54%	-4.30%	-1.16%	-2.06%	-2.45%	-2.11%	-2.03%	-1.58%	-1.98%	-1.30%	-0.68%
Max Decline		-2.63%	-18.59%	-3.73%	-5.75%	-10.89%	-5.30%	-9.44%	-7.40%	-13.01%	-4.88%	-1.60%
Avg Days to Max Decline		2	8	7	10	6	11	9	6	6	8	2
2008 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		37	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		20	27	22	23	21	20	23	21	23	21	21
Penetrated Low		17	20	13	20	16	14	19	17	18	18	10
Scenario Percentage		85%	74%	59%	87%	76%	70%	83%	81%	78%	86%	48%
Avg Max Decline		10.13%	5.25%	7.13%	6.36%	6.89%	7.42%	6.44%	5.38%	5.49%	4.31%	3.28%
Max Decline		25.71%	12.56%	25.62%	20.52%	16.52%	29.10%	30.39%	20.77%	15.50%	15.46%	7.58%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	14	12	14	18	16	17	15	13	10	9
Avg Max Increase		-1.76%	-2.15%	-1.31%	-1.75%	-2.23%	-2.24%	-2.09%	-1.53%	-1.77%	-0.93%	-1.10%
Max Increase		-10.08%	-11.53%	-7.06%	-6.08%	-7.02%	-6.46%	-6.92%	-6.25%	-4.42%	-4.57%	-3.00%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	9	5	6	6	10	12	5	7	2	2
2008 Contract Condition			Yes								Yes
Action			Yes								Yes
High	860.00	914.00	972.50	926.50	1038.75	1051.50	1135.00	1264.50	1360.25	1539.25	1586.50	1398.00
Low	790.50	845.00	870.25	837.00	918.00	959.00	1001.00	1095.50	1207.00	1292.50	1197.25	1106.50
Close/Last	852.00	899.00	890.50	913.00	1017.50	1044.50	1106.00	1229.75	1292.50	1536.50	1197.25	1301.75