MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Silver(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher	20	18	27	25	21	17	17	25	15	29	18
Exceeded High	16	15	22	19	13	12	14	17	10	21	9
Scenario Percentage	80%	83%	81%	76%	62%	71%	82%	68%	67%	72%	50%
Avg Max Increase	13.29%	22.54%	18.59%	15.95%	8.28%	13.43%	11.18%	10.93%	12.17%	12.45%	25.19%
Max Increase	67.84%	112.83%	92.76%	56.52%	23.11%	57.10%	34.60%	26.68%	21.39%	96.91%	68.16%
Avg Days To Max Increase	14	20	14	19	9	12	15	15	18	13	17
Avg Max Decline	-2.17%	-0.77%	-1.85%	-1.99%	-1.12%	-2.07%	-2.32%	-2.75%	-2.14%	-2.38%	-0.89%
Max Decline	-9.87%	-8.34%	-9.37%	-7.52%	-5.58%	-8.48%	-9.33%	-9.97%	-5.42%	-8.90%	-4.32%
Avg Days to Max Decline	5	4	8	6	5	5	4	11	7	9	3
2009 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	No			Yes		Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower	25	27	18	20	24	27	28	20	29	16	27
Penetrated Low	19	22	14	14	18	21	22	17	19	11	17
Scenario Percentage	76%	81%	78%	70%	75%	78%	79%	85%	66%	69%	63%
Avg Max Decline	7.13%	7.68%	8.93%	6.74%	10.47%	10.64%	9.70%	9.63%	7.04%	6.54%	21.26%
Max Decline	23.28%	33.27%	24.57%	17.34%	63.79%	45.68%	31.67%	25.07%	19.88%	15.45%	58.17%
Avg Days To Max Decline	12	17	20	19	17	16	18	15	18	18	12
Avg Max Increase	-2.87%	-2.22%	-2.44%	-2.87%	-2.40%	-2.17%	-3.05%	-2.81%	-2.86%	-1.44%	-3.64%
Max Increase	-13.07%	-8.56%	-8.76%	-7.44%	-11.11%	-7.92%	-8.61%	-9.01%	-8.96%	-10.95%	-11.89%
Avg Days to Max Increase	8	13	18	11	9	6	7	7	13	6	11
2009 Contract Condition	Yes					Yes	Yes		Yes
Action	No					Yes	No		Yes
High	1304.7	1054.0	1147.0	1262.0	1458.0	1391.4	1316.5	1581.0	1626.0	1409.5	1518.5
Low	885.8	887.7	940.9	1047.7	1234.9	1197.1	1182.7	1209.0	1345.5	1243.5	1349.5
Close/Last	977.9	1026.5	1132.0	1261.0	1313.5	1302.5	1234.1	1563.5	1360.0	1394.0	1489.8