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ScenarioSM Study for September Silver(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2010 | |||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | |||||||||||
Tested Month | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug |
Tested Years | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 |
Closed Higher | 20 | 18 | 27 | 25 | 21 | 17 | 17 | 25 | 15 | 29 | 18 |
Exceeded High | 16 | 15 | 22 | 19 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 17 | 10 | 21 | 9 |
Scenario Percentage | 80% | 83% | 81% | 76% | 62% | 71% | 82% | 68% | 67% | 72% | 50% |
Avg Max Increase | 13.29% | 22.54% | 18.59% | 15.95% | 8.28% | 13.43% | 11.18% | 10.93% | 12.17% | 12.45% | 25.19% |
Max Increase | 67.84% | 112.83% | 92.76% | 56.52% | 23.11% | 57.10% | 34.60% | 26.68% | 21.39% | 96.91% | 68.16% |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 14 | 20 | 14 | 19 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 18 | 13 | 17 |
Avg Max Decline | -2.17% | -0.77% | -1.85% | -1.99% | -1.12% | -2.07% | -2.32% | -2.75% | -2.14% | -2.38% | -0.89% |
Max Decline | -9.87% | -8.34% | -9.37% | -7.52% | -5.58% | -8.48% | -9.33% | -9.97% | -5.42% | -8.90% | -4.32% |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 5 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 3 |
2009 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes |
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