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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for July Silver(CMX) as of Jul 17, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   21 24 21 18 22 26 19 19 17 23 14
Exceeded High   14 14 14 15 22 19 13 14 13 14 10
Scenario Percentage   67% 58% 67% 83% 100% 73% 68% 74% 76% 61% 71%
Avg Max Increase   19.27% 13.55% 18.16% 20.25% 13.70% 11.85% 12.44% 17.82% 11.13% 11.58% 12.46%
Max Increase   68.96% 33.89% 67.69% 113.82% 41.85% 27.01% 47.41% 57.27% 26.56% 40.66% 40.34%
Avg Days To Max Increase   15 16 14 14 14 17 13 13 14 11 16
Avg Max Decline   -1.05% -3.55% -3.28% -1.23% -3.61% -1.98% -2.09% -2.27% -2.84% -2.77% -1.21%
Max Decline   -9.66% -10.44% -10.22% -9.41% -14.79% -7.94% -8.88% -6.28% -11.16% -10.00% -4.85%
Avg Days to Max Decline   4 10 6 5 13 6 5 7 6 7 2
2025 Contract Condition     Yes Yes     Yes   Yes   Yes Yes
Action     Yes No     Yes   No   Yes Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   24 21 24 27 23 19 26 24 28 22 31
Penetrated Low   17 16 19 23 16 13 20 19 24 17 16
Scenario Percentage   71% 76% 79% 85% 70% 68% 77% 79% 86% 77% 52%
Avg Max Decline   9.89% 9.87% 8.43% 7.62% 9.08% 9.51% 12.44% 11.09% 10.22% 10.31% 6.69%
Max Decline   36.91% 29.44% 23.58% 33.90% 24.88% 17.48% 63.98% 44.81% 31.91% 24.72% 17.22%
Avg Days To Max Decline   18 19 17 15 18 16 18 17 20 16 15
Avg Max Increase   -3.03% -3.59% -3.81% -2.45% -3.88% -3.59% -2.38% -2.90% -3.17% -3.59% -1.82%
Max Increase   -15.22% -12.20% -13.04% -9.47% -11.99% -7.01% -8.75% -8.51% -10.04% -7.59% -8.44%
Avg Days to Max Increase   9 14 12 6 17 11 9 8 9 6 4
2025 Contract Condition   Yes     Yes Yes   Yes   Yes    
Action   No     Yes No   Yes   No    
High 3319.6 3132.9 3375.0 3610.0 3410.0 3366.0 3350.0 3483.0 3580.0 3546.5 3391.5 3740.5
Low 2918.5 2800.5 2889.0 3125.0 3068.5 2967.5 3000.0 3167.0 3195.5 2784.5 3178.0 3307.5
Close/Last 3027.4 2999.7 3229.0 3379.8 3163.3 2986.0 3285.5 3180.3 3493.4 3282.8 3302.9 3585.2

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