MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Silver(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		19	27	20	17	22	27	23	18	17	24	14
Exceeded High		13	17	12	14	21	20	14	12	14	17	10
Scenario Percentage		68%	63%	60%	82%	95%	74%	61%	67%	82%	71%	71%
Avg Max Increase		20.16%	12.95%	17.41%	23.19%	19.17%	15.27%	11.64%	17.57%	8.98%	8.89%	8.85%
Max Increase		68.96%	33.89%	67.69%	113.82%	93.28%	56.94%	47.41%	57.27%	15.57%	27.24%	20.69%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	18	14	17	16	18	14	13	16	11	13
Avg Max Decline		-1.17%	-2.93%	-3.07%	-1.30%	-2.92%	-2.03%	-2.40%	-2.49%	-3.49%	-2.68%	-1.03%
Max Decline		-9.66%	-10.44%	-10.22%	-9.41%	-14.79%	-7.94%	-8.88%	-6.28%	-11.16%	-10.00%	-4.85%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	8	4	5	12	5	7	8	6	8	3
2018 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		No		Yes	No			No	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		26	18	25	28	23	18	22	25	28	21	31
Penetrated Low		16	15	19	24	16	11	17	20	23	17	15
Scenario Percentage		62%	83%	76%	86%	70%	61%	77%	80%	82%	81%	48%
Avg Max Decline		10.32%	10.64%	8.74%	8.20%	9.29%	9.24%	11.86%	11.59%	10.35%	10.56%	6.85%
Max Decline		36.91%	29.44%	23.58%	33.90%	24.88%	17.48%	63.98%	44.81%	31.91%	24.72%	17.68%
Avg Days To Max Decline		20	21	17	16	18	17	18	16	19	15	14
Avg Max Increase		-3.12%	-3.57%	-3.98%	-2.66%	-3.83%	-3.85%	-2.81%	-2.72%	-3.30%	-3.70%	-1.39%
Max Increase		-15.22%	-12.20%	-13.04%	-9.47%	-11.99%	-7.01%	-11.25%	-8.51%	-10.04%	-9.22%	-6.35%
Avg Days to Max Increase		11	14	12	8	18	13	10	7	10	6	4
2018 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes			Yes
Action			Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes			Yes
High	1711.6	1788.0	1839.5	1764.0	1761.0	1732.0	1788.0	1749.5	1697.5	1742.5	1686.5	1735.0
Low	1576.7	1651.0	1688.5	1656.5	1649.5	1580.0	1691.5	1630.5	1618.5	1622.5	1607.0	1588.0
Close/Last	1711.6	1778.9	1690.3	1691.1	1661.5	1729.4	1742.2	1649.9	1635.4	1640.1	1645.8	1610.4