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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for July Silver(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   19 27 20 17 22 27 23 18 17 24 14
Exceeded High   13 17 12 14 21 20 14 12 14 17 10
Scenario Percentage   68% 63% 60% 82% 95% 74% 61% 67% 82% 71% 71%
Avg Max Increase   20.16% 12.95% 17.41% 23.19% 19.17% 15.27% 11.64% 17.57% 8.98% 8.89% 8.85%
Max Increase   68.96% 33.89% 67.69% 113.82% 93.28% 56.94% 47.41% 57.27% 15.57% 27.24% 20.69%
Avg Days To Max Increase   15 18 14 17 16 18 14 13 16 11 13
Avg Max Decline   -1.17% -2.93% -3.07% -1.30% -2.92% -2.03% -2.40% -2.49% -3.49% -2.68% -1.03%
Max Decline   -9.66% -10.44% -10.22% -9.41% -14.79% -7.94% -8.88% -6.28% -11.16% -10.00% -4.85%
Avg Days to Max Decline   4 8 4 5 12 5 7 8 6 8 3
2018 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes   Yes Yes     Yes Yes  
Action   Yes   No   Yes No     No Yes  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   26 18 25 28 23 18 22 25 28 21 31
Penetrated Low   16 15 19 24 16 11 17 20 23 17 15
Scenario Percentage   62% 83% 76% 86% 70% 61% 77% 80% 82% 81% 48%
Avg Max Decline   10.32% 10.64% 8.74% 8.20% 9.29% 9.24% 11.86% 11.59% 10.35% 10.56% 6.85%
Max Decline   36.91% 29.44% 23.58% 33.90% 24.88% 17.48% 63.98% 44.81% 31.91% 24.72% 17.68%
Avg Days To Max Decline   20 21 17 16 18 17 18 16 19 15 14
Avg Max Increase   -3.12% -3.57% -3.98% -2.66% -3.83% -3.85% -2.81% -2.72% -3.30% -3.70% -1.39%
Max Increase   -15.22% -12.20% -13.04% -9.47% -11.99% -7.01% -11.25% -8.51% -10.04% -9.22% -6.35%
Avg Days to Max Increase   11 14 12 8 18 13 10 7 10 6 4
2018 Contract Condition     Yes   Yes     Yes Yes     Yes
Action     Yes   Yes     Yes Yes     Yes
High 1711.6 1788.0 1839.5 1764.0 1761.0 1732.0 1788.0 1749.5 1697.5 1742.5 1686.5 1735.0
Low 1576.7 1651.0 1688.5 1656.5 1649.5 1580.0 1691.5 1630.5 1618.5 1622.5 1607.0 1588.0
Close/Last 1711.6 1778.9 1690.3 1691.1 1661.5 1729.4 1742.2 1649.9 1635.4 1640.1 1645.8 1610.4

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