MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Silver(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2014
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		21	27	20	20	24	27	22	19	15	23	15
Exceeded High		13	18	15	16	22	20	14	12	13	16	10
Scenario Percentage		62%	67%	75%	80%	92%	74%	64%	63%	87%	70%	67%
Avg Max Increase		21.27%	12.63%	14.75%	21.65%	19.21%	16.05%	11.04%	15.91%	9.22%	9.77%	10.31%
Max Increase		68.96%	33.89%	67.69%	113.82%	93.28%	56.94%	47.41%	57.27%	15.57%	27.24%	20.69%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	17	14	17	15	17	12	12	15	12	17
Avg Max Decline		-1.26%	-2.98%	-2.77%	-1.15%	-2.85%	-2.31%	-1.75%	-1.62%	-2.90%	-2.53%	-1.22%
Max Decline		-9.66%	-10.44%	-10.22%	-9.41%	-14.79%	-7.94%	-5.56%	-5.49%	-9.23%	-10.00%	-4.85%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	8	5	4	11	6	6	6	4	9	3
2013 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	No		No		No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		24	18	25	25	21	18	23	24	30	22	30
Penetrated Low		15	14	18	21	16	11	17	19	24	17	13
Scenario Percentage		63%	78%	72%	84%	76%	61%	74%	79%	80%	77%	43%
Avg Max Decline		10.23%	11.68%	8.17%	9.08%	9.29%	9.24%	12.48%	11.89%	11.02%	10.84%	6.30%
Max Decline		36.91%	29.44%	23.58%	33.90%	24.88%	17.48%	63.98%	44.81%	31.91%	24.72%	17.68%
Avg Days To Max Decline		20	20	17	17	18	17	19	17	20	16	13
Avg Max Increase		-2.94%	-2.68%	-3.68%	-2.56%	-3.83%	-3.85%	-3.07%	-2.44%	-2.96%	-3.71%	-1.71%
Max Increase		-15.22%	-8.39%	-13.04%	-9.47%	-11.99%	-7.01%	-11.25%	-8.51%	-8.65%	-9.22%	-6.35%
Avg Days to Max Increase		11	11	11	10	18	13	10	6	9	7	4
2013 Contract Condition				Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action				Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	2851.0	3188.0	3530.0	3524.8	3455.0	3388.0	3254.8	3219.0	2940.0	2837.5	2442.0	2291.5
Low	2697.8	2714.0	3200.5	3175.6	3099.8	2975.5	2941.0	2840.0	2800.0	2112.0	2025.0	1818.5
Close/Last	2808.7	3157.0	3472.1	3246.0	3336.8	3032.5	3146.0	2848.6	2838.2	2418.5	2224.3	1945.1