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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March Silver(CMX) as of Jul 11, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   18 22 14 24 21 24 21 17 21 27 18
Exceeded High   14 14 11 19 14 15 13 14 20 20 11
Scenario Percentage   78% 64% 79% 79% 67% 63% 62% 82% 95% 74% 61%
Avg Max Increase   9.91% 11.68% 14.67% 13.13% 15.96% 12.82% 14.57% 13.96% 13.16% 11.01% 7.89%
Max Increase   26.13% 42.22% 60.39% 42.22% 43.29% 34.44% 27.10% 37.56% 34.50% 24.65% 15.74%
Avg Days To Max Increase   15 12 16 16 14 14 13 14 16 16 13
Avg Max Decline   -2.01% -1.88% -1.69% -3.80% -1.93% -3.60% -3.63% -1.82% -4.00% -2.86% -1.37%
Max Decline   -10.75% -9.91% -7.22% -13.99% -10.68% -11.59% -10.90% -10.80% -14.99% -14.24% -3.66%
Avg Days to Max Decline   5 7 6 9 4 6 6 4 13 9 3
2025 Contract Condition   Yes Yes       Yes Yes     Yes  
Action   Yes No       Yes No     Yes  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   27 23 31 21 24 21 24 28 24 18 27
Penetrated Low   23 18 22 16 15 15 18 24 16 12 20
Scenario Percentage   85% 78% 71% 76% 63% 71% 75% 86% 67% 67% 74%
Avg Max Decline   9.83% 9.95% 7.78% 8.01% 11.36% 10.25% 9.21% 7.86% 9.21% 8.74% 5.40%
Max Decline   31.14% 25.10% 19.78% 17.69% 38.41% 31.24% 24.69% 33.78% 24.57% 17.27% 28.39%
Avg Days To Max Decline   21 14 16 18 18 20 14 15 18 11 10
Avg Max Increase   -2.39% -2.81% -3.35% -3.85% -2.85% -4.37% -3.49% -2.96% -4.15% -3.82% -1.90%
Max Increase   -9.64% -6.26% -10.30% -30.43% -14.94% -12.66% -8.49% -9.95% -12.35% -6.52% -8.06%
Avg Days to Max Increase   8 7 13 9 12 18 9 6 16 8 3
2025 Contract Condition       Yes Yes Yes     Yes Yes   Yes
Action       Yes Yes No     Yes No   Not Yet
High 2663.5 3022.6 3385.0 3280.0 3283.5 3102.5 3339.0 3553.0 3368.0 3333.0 3292.0 3424.0
Low 2372.5 2619.8 2738.0 2980.0 2827.5 2737.5 2839.0 3075.5 3009.5 2914.5 2927.0 3108.5
Close/Last 2602.3 2773.4 3165.7 3042.0 2977.8 2953.3 3184.3 3323.9 3110.8 2924.2 3226.5 3121.9

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