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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March Silver(CMX) as of Aug 18, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   17 23 14 25 22 25 21 17 23 28 19
Exceeded High   13 16 11 21 15 16 13 14 22 20 11
Scenario Percentage   76% 70% 79% 84% 68% 64% 62% 82% 96% 71% 58%
Avg Max Increase   9.57% 11.05% 14.67% 15.82% 19.42% 12.79% 18.74% 22.01% 15.32% 12.06% 7.89%
Max Increase   26.13% 42.22% 60.39% 81.96% 67.95% 34.44% 67.34% 115.36% 42.86% 24.65% 15.74%
Avg Days To Max Increase   16 13 16 16 14 16 15 15 16 17 13
Avg Max Decline   -2.01% -2.26% -1.69% -3.70% -1.62% -3.48% -3.73% -1.54% -3.59% -2.74% -1.37%
Max Decline   -10.75% -9.91% -7.22% -13.99% -10.68% -11.59% -10.90% -10.80% -14.99% -14.24% -3.66%
Avg Days to Max Decline   6 9 6 9 4 6 6 4 12 8 3
2023 Contract Condition             Yes Yes Yes Yes    
Action             Yes Yes Yes Yes    
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   28 22 31 20 23 20 24 28 22 17 26
Penetrated Low   23 17 21 15 14 14 18 23 15 11 21
Scenario Percentage   82% 77% 68% 75% 61% 70% 75% 82% 68% 65% 81%
Avg Max Decline   9.83% 10.21% 7.59% 8.00% 11.03% 10.47% 9.21% 7.93% 9.24% 9.12% 7.89%
Max Decline   31.14% 25.10% 19.78% 17.69% 38.41% 31.24% 24.69% 33.78% 24.57% 17.27% 57.10%
Avg Days To Max Decline   21 14 16 18 19 21 14 15 19 11 11
Avg Max Increase   -2.39% -2.75% -2.73% -4.04% -2.94% -4.70% -3.49% -2.77% -4.36% -4.09% -2.08%
Max Increase   -9.64% -6.26% -8.28% -30.43% -14.94% -12.66% -8.49% -9.95% -12.35% -6.52% -8.06%
Avg Days to Max Increase   8 6 12 10 13 20 9 5 17 9 3
2023 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes         Yes Yes
Action   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes         Yes Yes
High 2715.5 2686.0 2372.0 2300.0 2056.5 2115.0 2014.0 2143.5 2252.5 2452.5 2477.5 2475.0
Low 2468.0 2317.5 2098.5 2048.5 1842.5 1796.5 1756.0 1823.0 1896.5 2219.0 2284.5 2047.5
Close/Last 2554.2 2345.1 2214.8 2067.5 2050.4 1803.6 1918.4 1929.6 2178.1 2404.0 2383.6 2096.1

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