MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Silver(CMX) as of May 10, 2021
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		17	23	15	25	22	26	20	16	22	30	19
Exceeded High		13	17	12	21	15	17	12	13	21	22	11
Scenario Percentage		76%	74%	80%	84%	68%	65%	60%	81%	95%	73%	58%
Avg Max Increase		9.44%	10.88%	13.94%	15.82%	19.42%	11.70%	17.71%	22.65%	15.82%	11.95%	7.28%
Max Increase		26.13%	42.22%	60.39%	81.96%	67.95%	34.44%	67.34%	115.36%	42.86%	24.65%	15.74%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	13	15	16	14	15	14	16	17	17	14
Avg Max Decline		-2.38%	-2.21%	-1.65%	-3.70%	-1.62%	-3.37%	-3.70%	-1.80%	-3.57%	-2.70%	-1.46%
Max Decline		-10.75%	-9.91%	-7.22%	-13.99%	-10.68%	-11.59%	-10.90%	-10.80%	-14.99%	-14.24%	-3.66%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	9	6	9	4	5	6	4	13	7	3
2021 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Yes		Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		28	22	30	20	23	19	25	29	23	15	26
Penetrated Low		23	17	20	15	12	14	18	23	15	10	20
Scenario Percentage		82%	77%	67%	75%	52%	74%	72%	79%	65%	67%	77%
Avg Max Decline		9.71%	9.55%	6.81%	6.98%	11.75%	10.47%	9.21%	7.83%	9.24%	8.35%	8.01%
Max Decline		31.14%	25.10%	19.78%	17.69%	38.41%	31.24%	24.69%	33.78%	24.57%	17.27%	57.10%
Avg Days To Max Decline		20	14	16	20	20	21	14	15	19	11	11
Avg Max Increase		-2.38%	-2.58%	-2.79%	-3.77%	-3.13%	-4.70%	-3.49%	-2.76%	-4.36%	-4.11%	-2.12%
Max Increase		-9.64%	-6.26%	-8.28%	-30.43%	-14.94%	-12.66%	-8.49%	-9.95%	-12.35%	-6.52%	-8.06%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	6	12	9	14	20	9	6	17	9	3
2021 Contract Condition							Yes		Yes			Yes
Action							No		No			Yes
High	1763.0	1644.5	1875.2	1922.0	2667.0	3039.0	2938.5	2585.5	2627.0	2763.5	2810.5	3035.0
Low	1188.9	1412.0	1498.0	1753.0	1842.0	2398.0	2193.0	2279.5	2196.0	2266.5	2404.0	2593.5
Close/Last	1430.5	1523.8	1875.2	1894.7	2471.2	2875.6	2362.7	2379.9	2259.3	2641.2	2691.4	2640.2