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ScenarioSM Study for March Silver(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2019 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb |
Tested Years | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
Closed Higher | 17 | 23 | 15 | 26 | 20 | 27 | 20 | 17 | 21 | 28 | 22 | |
Exceeded High | 14 | 17 | 12 | 20 | 14 | 18 | 12 | 14 | 19 | 21 | 12 | |
Scenario Percentage | 82% | 74% | 80% | 77% | 70% | 67% | 60% | 82% | 90% | 75% | 55% | |
Avg Max Increase | 8.18% | 10.02% | 9.45% | 14.74% | 20.26% | 12.52% | 17.46% | 23.61% | 21.19% | 14.44% | 6.90% | |
Max Increase | 14.78% | 27.27% | 19.77% | 81.96% | 67.95% | 34.44% | 67.34% | 115.36% | 95.03% | 58.37% | 15.74% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 17 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 17 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 14 | |
Avg Max Decline | -2.82% | -2.31% | -1.53% | -3.72% | -1.75% | -3.15% | -3.46% | -1.71% | -3.22% | -2.87% | -1.50% | |
Max Decline | -10.75% | -9.91% | -7.22% | -13.99% | -10.68% | -11.59% | -10.90% | -10.80% | -14.99% | -14.24% | -3.66% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 6 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 3 | |
2018 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Not Yet |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.