MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Silver(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2018
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		17	22	16	26	20	27	20	18	21	27	23
Exceeded High		14	16	13	20	13	18	13	15	19	21	13
Scenario Percentage		82%	73%	81%	77%	65%	67%	65%	83%	90%	78%	57%
Avg Max Increase		8.18%	10.53%	10.42%	14.66%	21.52%	12.52%	16.90%	22.62%	22.23%	14.45%	6.85%
Max Increase		14.78%	27.27%	22.02%	81.96%	67.95%	34.44%	67.34%	115.36%	95.03%	58.37%	15.74%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	14	16	17	16	17	15	16	17	18	13
Avg Max Decline		-2.82%	-2.32%	-1.42%	-3.58%	-1.86%	-3.15%	-3.45%	-1.63%	-3.34%	-2.87%	-1.56%
Max Decline		-10.75%	-9.91%	-7.22%	-13.99%	-10.68%	-11.59%	-10.90%	-10.80%	-14.99%	-14.24%	-3.66%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	10	7	9	5	6	6	4	11	7	3
2017 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes				Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	No		No				Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		28	23	29	19	25	18	25	27	24	17	22
Penetrated Low		22	18	19	14	14	13	18	23	16	10	16
Scenario Percentage		79%	78%	66%	74%	56%	72%	72%	85%	67%	59%	73%
Avg Max Decline		9.83%	10.11%	6.93%	6.71%	11.88%	11.71%	9.53%	8.62%	9.42%	8.35%	7.44%
Max Decline		31.14%	25.10%	19.78%	17.69%	38.41%	31.24%	24.69%	33.78%	24.57%	17.27%	57.10%
Avg Days To Max Decline		20	13	17	20	20	22	13	16	19	11	10
Avg Max Increase		-2.57%	-2.91%	-2.95%	-4.04%	-2.86%	-4.27%	-3.66%	-3.08%	-4.13%	-4.11%	-1.90%
Max Increase		-9.64%	-8.54%	-8.28%	-30.43%	-14.94%	-12.66%	-8.49%	-9.95%	-12.35%	-6.52%	-8.06%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	6	12	10	13	18	10	8	17	9	3
2017 Contract Condition			Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes	No
High	1629.0	1808.0	1813.0	1877.5	2106.5	2097.0	2032.0	1943.0	1912.0	1730.0	1763.5	1847.5
Low	1490.3	1511.8	1612.0	1605.0	1918.0	1859.0	1876.5	1724.5	1624.5	1567.5	1593.5	1726.0
Close/Last	1563.5	1798.4	1617.7	1876.4	2053.7	1881.4	1932.9	1791.4	1648.2	1598.9	1754.3	1842.0