MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Silver(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		16	21	15	27	21	26	20	19	23	26	22
Exceeded High		13	16	12	21	13	18	14	16	21	20	13
Scenario Percentage		81%	76%	80%	78%	62%	69%	70%	84%	91%	77%	59%
Avg Max Increase		8.47%	10.53%	10.27%	14.21%	21.52%	12.52%	15.80%	22.06%	20.95%	13.88%	6.55%
Max Increase		14.78%	27.27%	22.02%	81.96%	67.95%	34.44%	67.34%	115.36%	95.03%	58.37%	15.74%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	14	17	18	16	17	15	17	16	17	14
Avg Max Decline		-2.21%	-2.32%	-1.72%	-3.56%	-1.86%	-3.15%	-3.23%	-1.51%	-3.00%	-3.18%	-1.59%
Max Decline		-9.18%	-9.91%	-7.22%	-13.99%	-10.68%	-11.59%	-10.90%	-10.80%	-14.99%	-14.24%	-3.66%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	10	7	9	5	6	6	4	10	9	3
2015 Contract Condition				Yes						Yes	Yes
Action				Yes						Yes	Not Yet

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		29	24	30	18	24	19	25	26	22	18	23
Penetrated Low		23	18	20	13	14	14	18	22	16	10	16
Scenario Percentage		79%	75%	67%	72%	58%	74%	72%	85%	73%	56%	70%
Avg Max Decline		10.04%	10.42%	6.57%	6.79%	12.36%	11.76%	8.94%	8.89%	9.42%	8.29%	7.40%
Max Decline		31.14%	25.10%	19.78%	17.69%	38.41%	31.24%	24.69%	33.78%	24.57%	17.27%	57.10%
Avg Days To Max Decline		21	15	17	20	21	21	12	16	19	11	10
Avg Max Increase		-2.25%	-2.96%	-2.93%	-3.85%	-2.43%	-3.70%	-3.28%	-3.12%	-4.13%	-4.11%	-1.90%
Max Increase		-7.64%	-8.54%	-8.28%	-30.43%	-14.94%	-8.72%	-8.49%	-9.95%	-12.35%	-6.52%	-8.06%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	7	11	9	13	17	9	9	17	9	3
2015 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action		Yes	No		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
High	2175.5	2022.8	1988.4	2130.0	2166.0	2060.0	1956.5	1781.0	1675.5	1735.5	1850.5	1775.0
Low	1983.0	1917.5	1880.0	1886.7	2047.5	1944.5	1690.0	1576.0	1508.5	1415.5	1551.0	1604.0
Close/Last	1988.6	1928.2	1880.8	2116.6	2053.2	1955.1	1709.7	1616.3	1555.6	1559.9	1720.8	1651.3