MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Soybeans(CBOT) as of Aug 18, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		21	21	20	19	22	19	26	26	19	22	26
Exceeded High		17	20	14	12	19	15	21	18	17	18	16
Scenario Percentage		81%	95%	70%	63%	86%	79%	81%	69%	89%	82%	62%
Avg Max Increase		11.59%	10.49%	12.64%	11.15%	9.11%	10.39%	7.61%	6.80%	8.26%	7.65%	3.90%
Max Increase		40.52%	25.31%	51.69%	31.98%	35.74%	20.64%	26.03%	22.83%	31.79%	23.26%	8.98%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	14	15	15	16	18	20	14	15	8	7
Avg Max Decline		-2.25%	-1.82%	-0.50%	-2.63%	-1.37%	-2.10%	-2.86%	-2.17%	-2.07%	-1.31%	-0.61%
Max Decline		-9.12%	-6.23%	-4.89%	-7.06%	-3.84%	-6.41%	-10.06%	-6.18%	-8.91%	-4.36%	-2.27%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	5	3	8	5	5	9	10	11	4	2
2023 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		24	23	25	26	23	25	19	19	26	22	19
Penetrated Low		17	21	24	21	15	23	14	12	22	15	7
Scenario Percentage		71%	91%	96%	81%	65%	92%	74%	63%	85%	68%	37%
Avg Max Decline		7.72%	7.74%	8.28%	7.17%	7.95%	6.70%	6.64%	6.77%	5.31%	3.88%	2.48%
Max Decline		14.65%	17.84%	16.25%	25.44%	37.21%	21.93%	17.56%	12.54%	17.04%	11.40%	3.88%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	20	15	15	10	13	17	16	16	10	6
Avg Max Increase		-2.42%	-3.68%	-3.14%	-2.21%	-1.24%	-1.70%	-2.57%	-3.24%	-2.13%	-1.74%	-0.82%
Max Increase		-6.80%	-12.12%	-12.72%	-13.07%	-3.78%	-7.66%	-6.09%	-7.83%	-6.19%	-6.41%	-1.64%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	12	7	8	5	5	5	14	12	6	2
2023 Contract Condition				Yes		Yes	Yes					Yes
Action				Yes		No	Yes					Not Yet
High	1467.75	1529.75	1555.75	1572.25	1487.25	1487.25	1508.00	1431.75	1484.00	1537.50	1548.50	1555.50
Low	1380.75	1373.50	1433.75	1400.75	1299.00	1365.25	1381.25	1371.00	1412.75	1431.75	1465.00	1489.50
Close/Last	1392.75	1498.75	1507.75	1453.50	1469.00	1430.00	1383.25	1427.50	1475.50	1524.00	1538.00	1490.50