MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Soybeans(CBOT) as of Sep 16, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		21	21	20	18	22	20	26	26	19	21	27
Exceeded High		17	20	14	11	19	16	21	17	16	17	17
Scenario Percentage		81%	95%	70%	61%	86%	80%	81%	65%	84%	81%	63%
Avg Max Increase		11.84%	10.46%	12.64%	11.93%	9.11%	10.76%	7.86%	6.91%	8.65%	8.04%	4.68%
Max Increase		40.52%	25.31%	51.69%	31.98%	35.74%	20.64%	26.03%	22.83%	31.79%	23.26%	17.09%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	14	15	16	16	18	19	14	15	8	7
Avg Max Decline		-2.21%	-1.82%	-0.50%	-2.23%	-1.37%	-2.28%	-2.84%	-2.12%	-1.96%	-1.26%	-0.56%
Max Decline		-9.12%	-6.23%	-4.89%	-5.64%	-3.84%	-6.41%	-10.06%	-6.18%	-8.91%	-4.36%	-2.27%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	5	3	9	5	6	8	10	11	4	2
2022 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes						Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No						Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		24	23	25	27	23	24	19	19	26	23	18
Penetrated Low		17	21	24	22	15	22	14	12	22	15	7
Scenario Percentage		71%	91%	96%	81%	65%	92%	74%	63%	85%	65%	39%
Avg Max Decline		7.72%	7.74%	8.94%	7.34%	7.95%	6.96%	6.64%	6.77%	5.31%	3.88%	2.48%
Max Decline		14.65%	17.84%	26.40%	25.44%	37.21%	21.93%	17.56%	12.54%	17.04%	11.40%	3.88%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	20	15	15	10	13	17	16	16	10	6
Avg Max Increase		-2.42%	-3.68%	-2.93%	-2.23%	-1.24%	-1.69%	-2.57%	-3.24%	-2.13%	-1.74%	-0.82%
Max Increase		-6.80%	-12.12%	-12.72%	-13.07%	-3.78%	-7.66%	-6.09%	-7.83%	-6.19%	-6.41%	-1.64%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	12	7	8	5	5	5	14	12	6	2
2022 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No
High	1242.75	1352.75	1416.50	1445.50	1399.50	1376.25	1320.50	1283.25	1300.50	1384.50	1496.75	1765.00
Low	1170.75	1215.50	1306.00	1229.50	1284.00	1284.25	1266.00	1206.00	1193.00	1223.50	1342.00	1485.00
Close/Last	1237.25	1318.50	1350.25	1372.75	1347.75	1305.25	1272.00	1259.00	1226.50	1339.25	1490.50	1644.25