MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Soybeans(CBOT) as of May 10, 2021
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		21	21	20	18	23	20	27	26	19	21	27
Exceeded High		17	20	15	11	20	16	22	17	16	17	18
Scenario Percentage		81%	95%	75%	61%	87%	80%	81%	65%	84%	81%	67%
Avg Max Increase		13.42%	11.64%	12.64%	11.93%	9.26%	10.76%	7.69%	6.91%	7.32%	8.01%	4.96%
Max Increase		40.52%	30.68%	51.69%	31.98%	35.74%	20.64%	26.03%	22.83%	23.53%	23.26%	17.09%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	14	14	16	16	18	20	14	16	7	6
Avg Max Decline		-2.13%	-1.90%	-0.55%	-2.23%	-1.31%	-2.28%	-3.08%	-2.12%	-2.11%	-1.31%	-0.57%
Max Decline		-9.12%	-6.23%	-4.89%	-5.64%	-3.84%	-6.41%	-10.06%	-6.18%	-8.91%	-4.36%	-2.27%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	5	3	9	5	6	8	10	11	4	2
2021 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		24	23	25	27	22	24	18	19	26	23	18
Penetrated Low		17	21	24	22	14	22	13	12	22	15	7
Scenario Percentage		71%	91%	96%	81%	64%	92%	72%	63%	85%	65%	39%
Avg Max Decline		7.72%	7.74%	8.94%	7.25%	7.97%	6.89%	6.75%	6.77%	5.31%	3.77%	2.30%
Max Decline		14.65%	17.84%	26.40%	25.44%	37.21%	21.93%	17.56%	12.54%	17.04%	11.40%	3.60%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	20	15	13	10	13	18	16	16	9	5
Avg Max Increase		-2.42%	-3.68%	-2.93%	-2.17%	-1.24%	-1.83%	-2.70%	-3.24%	-2.13%	-1.74%	-0.82%
Max Increase		-6.80%	-12.12%	-12.72%	-13.07%	-3.78%	-7.66%	-6.09%	-7.83%	-6.19%	-6.41%	-1.64%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	12	7	7	5	5	5	14	12	6	2
2021 Contract Condition		Yes
Action		No
High	919.50	872.75	858.75	885.00	909.75	971.75	1041.00	1073.25	1200.25	1320.75	1436.50	1443.00
Low	828.75	824.75	828.75	848.75	874.75	875.00	950.25	1011.25	1038.50	1143.00	1298.00	1337.25
Close/Last	855.25	848.50	853.25	878.75	895.50	959.75	1021.00	1048.00	1169.50	1311.00	1370.00	1405.25