MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Soybeans(CBOT) as of Jun 08, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		21	20	20	18	22	20	26	25	18	21	27
Exceeded High		17	19	15	11	19	15	21	16	15	16	17
Scenario Percentage		81%	95%	75%	61%	86%	75%	81%	64%	83%	76%	63%
Avg Max Increase		13.42%	11.91%	14.01%	11.50%	9.13%	10.31%	6.82%	5.92%	7.14%	8.09%	5.01%
Max Increase		40.52%	30.68%	51.69%	31.98%	35.74%	20.64%	19.94%	22.23%	23.53%	23.26%	17.09%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	14	14	16	16	18	19	14	15	7	6
Avg Max Decline		-2.13%	-1.97%	-0.61%	-2.08%	-1.33%	-2.37%	-3.18%	-2.12%	-2.18%	-1.24%	-0.51%
Max Decline		-9.12%	-6.23%	-4.89%	-5.64%	-3.84%	-6.41%	-10.06%	-6.18%	-8.91%	-4.36%	-2.27%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	5	2	8	5	6	8	11	10	3	2
2020 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes
Action			Yes	No			Yes	No		Yes		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		24	24	25	27	23	24	19	20	27	23	18
Penetrated Low		18	22	24	22	15	22	14	13	22	15	7
Scenario Percentage		75%	92%	96%	81%	65%	92%	74%	65%	81%	65%	39%
Avg Max Decline		7.71%	7.51%	8.94%	7.25%	8.46%	6.89%	7.13%	6.96%	5.31%	3.77%	2.30%
Max Decline		14.65%	17.84%	26.40%	25.44%	37.21%	21.93%	17.56%	12.54%	17.04%	11.40%	3.60%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	19	15	13	11	13	17	16	16	9	5
Avg Max Increase		-2.32%	-3.49%	-2.93%	-2.17%	-1.68%	-1.83%	-2.63%	-3.29%	-2.13%	-1.74%	-0.82%
Max Increase		-6.80%	-12.12%	-12.72%	-13.07%	-7.84%	-7.66%	-6.09%	-7.83%	-6.19%	-6.41%	-1.64%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	12	7	7	5	5	6	13	12	6	2
2020 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes
Action		Yes			Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes
High	971.75	955.25	935.50	962.00	956.25	922.25	931.00	970.00	955.00	956.25	961.00	902.00
Low	932.25	891.50	841.50	898.25	907.00	879.50	879.25	927.50	890.50	882.50	872.25	866.75
Close/Last	933.50	893.75	921.75	941.50	908.50	894.25	930.00	945.25	891.25	955.50	872.50	883.50