MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Soybeans(CBOT) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		21	20	20	19	22	20	25	25	17	21	26
Exceeded High		17	19	16	12	19	15	21	16	14	16	17
Scenario Percentage		81%	95%	80%	63%	86%	75%	84%	64%	82%	76%	65%
Avg Max Increase		13.42%	14.96%	16.52%	10.66%	9.13%	10.59%	6.82%	5.92%	7.61%	8.10%	5.03%
Max Increase		40.52%	62.34%	54.17%	31.98%	35.74%	20.64%	19.94%	22.23%	23.53%	23.26%	17.09%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	15	15	17	16	17	19	14	16	7	7
Avg Max Decline		-2.13%	-2.04%	-0.48%	-3.57%	-1.33%	-2.49%	-3.18%	-2.12%	-2.32%	-1.24%	-0.51%
Max Decline		-9.12%	-6.23%	-4.89%	-19.86%	-3.84%	-6.41%	-10.06%	-6.18%	-8.91%	-4.36%	-2.27%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	5	2	10	5	6	8	11	11	3	2
2019 Contract Condition					Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes
Action					No		Yes		Yes		Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		23	24	25	26	23	24	20	20	28	23	19
Penetrated Low		17	22	24	21	15	22	15	13	23	15	8
Scenario Percentage		74%	92%	96%	81%	65%	92%	75%	65%	82%	65%	42%
Avg Max Decline		7.82%	7.51%	8.94%	7.44%	8.70%	6.89%	7.79%	9.08%	6.43%	5.09%	2.68%
Max Decline		14.65%	17.84%	26.40%	25.44%	37.21%	21.93%	17.56%	29.78%	31.19%	21.15%	4.04%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	19	15	14	11	13	18	15	16	9	6
Avg Max Increase		-2.43%	-3.49%	-2.93%	-2.21%	-1.72%	-1.83%	-2.92%	-2.74%	-2.13%	-1.65%	-1.02%
Max Increase		-6.80%	-12.12%	-12.72%	-13.07%	-7.84%	-7.66%	-6.99%	-7.38%	-6.19%	-6.41%	-2.37%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	12	7	7	5	5	6	11	11	5	2
2019 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		No		No		Yes
High	1048.00	1054.50	1046.50	1036.75	941.75	935.25	886.25	918.25	912.25	941.00	927.75	931.25
Low	1011.25	1001.00	993.75	881.25	846.00	855.50	839.75	858.00	859.00	880.50	891.25	893.25
Close/Last	1045.75	1032.50	1029.75	894.00	938.50	869.50	872.75	865.00	907.50	895.00	915.25	897.50