MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Soybeans(CBOT) as of Dec 30, 2011
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		41	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		21	22	21	18	24	19	27	24	20	22	23
Exceeded High		17	21	18	12	19	14	21	14	18	15	14
Scenario Percentage		81%	95%	86%	67%	79%	74%	78%	58%	90%	68%	61%
Avg Max Increase		16.10%	15.34%	14.25%	10.66%	9.33%	11.25%	7.50%	8.63%	9.30%	11.08%	6.17%
Max Increase		50.54%	62.34%	54.17%	31.98%	35.74%	20.64%	23.10%	30.54%	59.67%	42.75%	17.09%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	15	15	16	17	18	19	16	16	10	7
Avg Max Decline		-1.75%	-2.66%	-0.63%	-3.82%	-1.34%	-2.65%	-2.82%	-2.25%	-1.93%	-1.06%	-0.30%
Max Decline		-5.58%	-14.36%	-3.52%	-19.86%	-3.84%	-6.41%	-10.06%	-6.18%	-8.91%	-3.54%	-2.27%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	7	3	9	7	6	8	12	9	4	2
2011 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		41	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		20	22	24	26	21	25	18	21	25	22	22
Penetrated Low		14	18	22	20	16	22	14	15	20	16	10
Scenario Percentage		70%	82%	92%	77%	76%	88%	78%	71%	80%	73%	45%
Avg Max Decline		7.40%	7.23%	8.87%	6.49%	9.17%	7.13%	7.64%	7.51%	7.05%	4.92%	2.17%
Max Decline		13.07%	14.49%	26.40%	25.44%	37.21%	21.93%	17.56%	29.78%	31.19%	21.15%	4.04%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	19	15	14	12	13	19	13	16	9	5
Avg Max Increase		-2.70%	-3.55%	-2.57%	-2.30%	-1.65%	-1.72%	-3.08%	-1.99%	-2.16%	-1.59%	-1.14%
Max Increase		-6.80%	-12.12%	-12.72%	-13.07%	-7.84%	-5.98%	-6.99%	-7.38%	-6.19%	-6.41%	-5.06%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	11	7	9	5	5	6	8	13	5	2
2011 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes								Yes
Action			Yes	No								Not Yet
High	963.25	998.25	990.00	959.25	1013.25	1055.50	1161.00	1255.00	1354.50	1404.00	1432.50	1455.75
Low	920.75	929.00	911.75	906.75	911.25	1005.00	1017.00	1060.75	1183.00	1249.00	1355.25	1284.75
Close/Last	933.25	990.00	925.50	917.50	1013.00	1024.25	1122.75	1240.25	1251.50	1403.00	1413.00	1357.25