MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Soybeans(CBOT) as of Dec 31, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		40	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		20	22	22	18	23	19	26	24	20	22	23
Exceeded High		17	21	19	11	18	13	20	14	18	15	14
Scenario Percentage		85%	95%	86%	61%	78%	68%	77%	58%	90%	68%	61%
Avg Max Increase		16.10%	15.34%	13.66%	10.30%	8.60%	10.53%	7.22%	8.46%	9.68%	11.12%	6.16%
Max Increase		50.54%	62.34%	54.17%	31.98%	35.74%	17.87%	23.10%	30.54%	59.67%	42.75%	17.09%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	15	16	15	17	18	18	17	16	10	7
Avg Max Decline		-1.75%	-2.66%	-0.73%	-4.10%	-1.38%	-2.43%	-2.73%	-2.22%	-1.74%	-1.07%	-0.30%
Max Decline		-5.58%	-14.36%	-3.52%	-19.86%	-3.84%	-6.41%	-10.06%	-6.18%	-8.91%	-3.54%	-2.27%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	7	4	8	7	6	7	12	9	4	2
2010 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes			Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes			Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		40	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		20	22	23	26	22	25	19	21	25	22	22
Penetrated Low		14	17	22	20	16	22	14	15	20	16	11
Scenario Percentage		70%	77%	96%	77%	73%	88%	74%	71%	80%	73%	50%
Avg Max Decline		7.40%	7.54%	8.87%	6.49%	9.17%	7.13%	7.64%	7.51%	7.05%	4.92%	1.88%
Max Decline		13.07%	14.49%	26.40%	25.44%	37.21%	21.93%	17.56%	29.78%	31.19%	21.15%	4.04%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	20	15	14	12	13	19	13	16	9	4
Avg Max Increase		-2.70%	-3.67%	-2.57%	-2.30%	-1.65%	-1.72%	-3.08%	-1.99%	-2.16%	-1.59%	-1.11%
Max Increase		-6.80%	-12.12%	-12.72%	-13.07%	-7.84%	-5.98%	-6.99%	-7.38%	-6.19%	-6.41%	-5.06%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	11	7	9	5	5	6	8	13	5	2
2010 Contract Condition				Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
Action				Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
High	928.00	965.00	1053.75	1100.00	1022.50	1061.50	986.00	1027.00	1074.25	1084.00	1074.75	978.75
Low	805.00	900.00	951.00	945.00	888.00	950.75	906.00	888.25	955.75	992.25	913.00	900.00
Close/Last	909.50	951.00	1053.75	977.50	981.00	979.25	933.50	975.00	1066.00	1048.50	914.00	951.00