Moore Research Center, Inc.

  • Increase font size
  • Default font size
  • Decrease font size
Home MRCI Online
Print
New Windows

MRCI's Scenario Study

MRCI Logo
MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for January Soybeans(CBOT) as of Jul 11, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   23 22 21 19 20 19 21 18 25 27 20
Exceeded High   20 20 16 18 15 12 15 13 21 17 17
Scenario Percentage   87% 91% 76% 95% 75% 63% 71% 72% 84% 63% 85%
Avg Max Increase   5.88% 7.59% 12.20% 11.50% 12.87% 11.03% 9.99% 9.95% 7.55% 6.66% 4.03%
Max Increase   13.45% 25.55% 43.56% 26.75% 52.85% 32.84% 36.66% 20.86% 25.11% 23.09% 9.35%
Avg Days To Max Increase   15 16 16 14 15 14 16 17 17 11 9
Avg Max Decline   -1.57% -1.84% -2.13% -2.15% -0.67% -2.95% -1.00% -2.33% -2.16% -2.09% -0.89%
Max Decline   -5.55% -6.19% -9.08% -6.63% -5.42% -7.53% -3.53% -6.79% -9.38% -6.24% -3.77%
Avg Days to Max Decline   9 12 8 7 5 8 4 5 7 6 4
2025 Contract Condition     Yes   Yes       Yes     Yes
Action     Yes   No       No     Yes
Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   22 23 24 26 25 26 24 27 20 18 25
Penetrated Low   16 19 16 23 23 22 18 24 15 12 14
Scenario Percentage   73% 83% 67% 88% 92% 85% 75% 89% 75% 67% 56%
Avg Max Decline   5.93% 5.38% 9.09% 8.13% 9.18% 7.35% 7.30% 6.61% 6.61% 5.52% 2.80%
Max Decline   11.25% 13.87% 16.64% 19.52% 16.91% 25.70% 37.53% 21.37% 16.80% 12.09% 7.50%
Avg Days To Max Decline   14 18 19 19 16 15 11 12 15 11 8
Avg Max Increase   -1.60% -2.28% -2.41% -3.66% -3.24% -2.62% -1.57% -1.67% -2.60% -1.83% -0.99%
Max Increase   -3.22% -7.18% -7.29% -12.62% -12.51% -13.69% -5.92% -7.92% -6.08% -4.33% -3.49%
Avg Days to Max Increase   6 10 8 12 7 10 6 6 4 6 3
2025 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes   Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes  
Action   No   Yes   Yes Yes No   Yes Yes  
High 1243.50 1208.25 1224.50 1205.50 1240.00 1198.00 1147.50 1058.25 1087.50 1083.75 1044.00 1003.50
Low 1183.75 1133.00 1139.25 1159.50 1165.75 1114.00 1032.00 973.50 1012.75 977.25 975.25 945.25
Close/Last 1209.50 1142.75 1196.75 1171.25 1197.50 1118.00 1039.50 1017.00 1075.25 994.50 989.50 998.25

Banner

Newsflash

Let MRCI introduce you to our Futures Highlight!

The focus on a single market each month can provide you more in-depth knowledge of how it trades. What if you knew such things as ...
(1) average daily ranges by day of week
(2)  how often it tends to close higher/lower by day of week
(3)  how often it tends to gap up/down
(4)  historical summary of daily % of price change

FREE for a limited time!!!