MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January Soybeans(CBOT) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		25	24	22	21	20	19	22	19	24	26	17
Exceeded High		23	21	17	20	16	11	17	14	20	15	13
Scenario Percentage		92%	88%	77%	95%	80%	58%	77%	74%	83%	58%	76%
Avg Max Increase		5.46%	7.31%	14.34%	15.36%	17.22%	11.34%	9.84%	10.40%	6.82%	5.68%	3.75%
Max Increase		11.00%	25.55%	43.56%	63.29%	54.89%	32.84%	36.66%	20.86%	19.91%	20.00%	8.09%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	19	17	15	15	15	15	17	16	10	8
Avg Max Decline		-1.64%	-1.90%	-1.95%	-2.15%	-0.50%	-2.31%	-1.17%	-2.47%	-2.59%	-2.02%	-0.84%
Max Decline		-5.55%	-6.19%	-9.08%	-6.63%	-5.42%	-6.01%	-4.05%	-6.79%	-9.38%	-6.24%	-3.30%
Avg Days to Max Decline		10	13	7	6	2	7	4	6	7	6	5
2019 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes				Yes		Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes				No		Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		20	21	23	24	25	26	23	26	21	19	28
Penetrated Low		15	17	14	23	23	22	17	23	16	12	15
Scenario Percentage		75%	81%	61%	96%	92%	85%	74%	88%	76%	63%	54%
Avg Max Decline		6.25%	4.99%	9.44%	7.63%	9.59%	7.47%	8.13%	7.15%	7.71%	7.19%	2.92%
Max Decline		18.43%	12.84%	16.64%	19.52%	26.94%	25.70%	37.53%	21.37%	17.94%	16.04%	7.50%
Avg Days To Max Decline		10	17	17	18	15	13	12	14	18	11	8
Avg Max Increase		-1.72%	-2.22%	-2.23%	-3.43%	-2.85%	-2.32%	-1.68%	-1.94%	-2.88%	-2.07%	-1.18%
Max Increase		-3.85%	-7.18%	-7.29%	-12.62%	-12.51%	-13.69%	-7.17%	-7.92%	-6.83%	-4.43%	-3.49%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	11	9	12	7	7	5	5	6	6	3
2019 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		No		Not Yet
High	1023.50	1040.00	1051.75	1062.00	1063.25	1047.25	932.75	926.25	873.00	906.25	900.75	928.00
Low	975.50	995.50	1012.75	1002.00	1006.50	874.00	836.75	842.00	826.25	844.50	845.75	867.00
Close/Last	1017.25	1035.75	1049.75	1048.50	1039.75	889.00	929.50	856.75	859.50	851.75	894.75	882.50