MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January Soybeans(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		25	23	23	22	20	19	22	18	24	26	17
Exceeded High		23	20	18	21	16	12	17	13	20	14	11
Scenario Percentage		92%	87%	78%	95%	80%	63%	77%	72%	83%	54%	65%
Avg Max Increase		5.98%	7.61%	16.46%	16.06%	17.22%	11.66%	9.84%	10.79%	6.82%	5.76%	3.38%
Max Increase		14.58%	25.55%	52.48%	63.29%	54.89%	32.84%	36.66%	20.86%	19.91%	20.00%	8.09%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	18	17	15	15	15	15	17	16	10	6
Avg Max Decline		-1.82%	-1.76%	-2.02%	-2.62%	-0.50%	-2.95%	-1.17%	-2.64%	-2.59%	-1.79%	-0.36%
Max Decline		-7.51%	-6.19%	-9.08%	-12.08%	-5.42%	-10.01%	-4.05%	-6.79%	-9.38%	-5.00%	-2.05%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	13	8	8	2	7	4	7	7	5	3
2018 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No		Yes		Yes	No		Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		20	22	22	23	25	26	23	27	21	19	28
Penetrated Low		15	17	13	22	23	22	17	24	17	12	14
Scenario Percentage		75%	77%	59%	96%	92%	85%	74%	89%	81%	63%	50%
Avg Max Decline		6.25%	4.99%	8.89%	7.09%	9.63%	7.47%	9.46%	7.69%	7.53%	7.10%	2.41%
Max Decline		18.43%	12.84%	13.99%	16.03%	26.94%	25.70%	37.53%	21.37%	17.94%	14.95%	5.81%
Avg Days To Max Decline		10	17	17	19	15	13	13	14	17	11	6
Avg Max Increase		-1.72%	-2.22%	-2.29%	-3.55%	-3.04%	-2.32%	-1.57%	-1.96%	-2.76%	-2.07%	-0.97%
Max Increase		-3.85%	-7.18%	-7.29%	-12.62%	-12.51%	-13.69%	-7.17%	-7.92%	-6.83%	-4.43%	-2.23%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	11	8	12	7	7	5	6	5	6	3
2018 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes			Yes				Yes
Action			Yes		Yes			No				Yes
High	1035.25	1038.50	1036.00	975.00	987.00	965.25	1054.25	1009.25	997.00	1013.00	1008.25	1015.00
Low	985.75	1000.25	956.25	948.00	923.50	915.25	967.00	929.25	947.50	963.25	967.00	943.25
Close/Last	1004.50	1021.75	959.75	960.25	926.25	962.50	1016.00	954.75	978.50	984.75	985.75	951.75