MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January Soybeans(CBOT) as of Dec 30, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		25	24	21	23	20	19	23	17	24	25	19
Exceeded High		24	21	16	22	17	12	18	12	19	15	13
Scenario Percentage		96%	88%	76%	96%	85%	63%	78%	71%	79%	60%	68%
Avg Max Increase		6.01%	6.92%	17.27%	15.47%	16.32%	11.66%	9.59%	11.36%	8.06%	6.83%	3.75%
Max Increase		14.58%	25.55%	52.48%	63.29%	54.89%	32.84%	36.66%	20.86%	25.11%	20.00%	8.09%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	19	17	15	15	15	16	17	16	10	8
Avg Max Decline		-1.78%	-1.79%	-2.21%	-2.60%	-0.66%	-2.95%	-1.21%	-3.01%	-2.51%	-2.03%	-0.84%
Max Decline		-7.51%	-6.19%	-9.08%	-12.08%	-5.42%	-10.01%	-4.05%	-6.79%	-9.38%	-6.24%	-3.30%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	14	9	8	4	7	6	7	6	6	5
2016 Contract Condition		Yes				Yes			Yes
Action		Yes				Yes			Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		20	21	24	22	25	26	22	28	21	20	26
Penetrated Low		15	16	13	21	23	21	17	25	17	13	14
Scenario Percentage		75%	76%	54%	95%	92%	81%	77%	89%	81%	65%	54%
Avg Max Decline		6.27%	5.07%	8.89%	7.37%	9.63%	7.53%	9.62%	7.53%	7.53%	6.86%	3.04%
Max Decline		18.43%	12.84%	13.99%	16.03%	26.94%	25.70%	37.53%	21.37%	17.94%	16.04%	7.50%
Avg Days To Max Decline		12	17	17	18	15	14	14	14	17	11	7
Avg Max Increase		-1.88%	-2.18%	-2.29%	-3.52%	-3.04%	-2.34%	-1.77%	-2.11%	-2.76%	-2.11%	-1.21%
Max Increase		-3.85%	-7.18%	-7.29%	-12.62%	-12.51%	-13.69%	-7.17%	-7.92%	-6.83%	-4.43%	-3.49%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	9	8	12	7	7	5	6	5	7	3
2016 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Not Yet	Not Yet
High	1035.00	1008.00	1008.75	983.50	967.75	1043.00	1050.25	1001.25	905.00	923.50	891.00	909.75
Low	946.00	949.75	944.25	943.00	905.50	903.00	938.00	858.25	857.00	872.25	844.25	854.00
Close/Last	951.50	1001.50	960.00	958.25	912.75	1042.25	945.75	892.25	894.00	885.75	881.00	871.25