MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January Soybeans(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		25	25	22	23	20	19	23	17	25	25	19
Exceeded High		24	22	17	22	17	12	18	12	19	15	13
Scenario Percentage		96%	88%	77%	96%	85%	63%	78%	71%	76%	60%	68%
Avg Max Increase		6.16%	6.80%	17.03%	15.47%	16.49%	11.66%	9.59%	11.76%	8.06%	6.83%	3.75%
Max Increase		14.58%	25.55%	52.48%	63.29%	54.89%	32.84%	36.66%	20.86%	25.11%	20.00%	8.09%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	19	18	15	16	15	16	18	16	10	8
Avg Max Decline		-1.73%	-1.71%	-2.21%	-2.60%	-0.45%	-2.95%	-1.21%	-2.84%	-2.51%	-2.03%	-0.84%
Max Decline		-7.51%	-6.19%	-9.08%	-12.08%	-2.40%	-10.01%	-4.05%	-6.79%	-9.38%	-6.24%	-3.30%
Avg Days to Max Decline		10	13	9	8	4	7	6	7	6	6	5
2015 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes						Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes						Yes		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		20	20	23	22	25	26	22	28	20	20	26
Penetrated Low		15	15	12	20	23	21	17	25	16	14	14
Scenario Percentage		75%	75%	52%	91%	92%	81%	77%	89%	80%	70%	54%
Avg Max Decline		6.27%	5.03%	9.15%	7.69%	9.63%	7.25%	9.49%	7.53%	7.71%	6.60%	3.04%
Max Decline		18.43%	12.84%	13.99%	16.03%	26.94%	25.70%	37.53%	21.37%	17.94%	16.04%	7.50%
Avg Days To Max Decline		12	16	17	19	15	13	14	14	16	11	7
Avg Max Increase		-1.88%	-2.16%	-2.40%	-3.56%	-3.04%	-2.29%	-1.77%	-2.11%	-2.89%	-2.00%	-1.21%
Max Increase		-3.85%	-7.18%	-7.29%	-12.62%	-12.51%	-13.69%	-7.17%	-7.92%	-6.83%	-4.43%	-3.49%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	9	8	12	7	7	5	6	6	6	3
2015 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
High	1140.50	1185.00	1201.50	1254.25	1284.00	1260.00	1165.00	1097.25	1045.50	1059.25	1086.25	1061.75
Low	1093.25	1105.25	1168.00	1189.50	1214.00	1158.25	1063.50	1027.25	914.00	912.25	995.25	983.75
Close/Last	1109.75	1172.25	1192.50	1252.00	1239.50	1164.00	1090.25	1032.50	921.25	1049.25	1016.00	1019.25