MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January Soybeans(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years	38	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher	20	24	19	22	22	17	23	20	26	26	20
Exceeded High	20	21	15	21	19	8	18	15	17	14	11
Scenario Percentage	100%	88%	79%	95%	86%	47%	78%	75%	65%	54%	55%
Avg Max Increase	6.26%	6.12%	16.96%	15.06%	14.12%	12.56%	8.63%	9.12%	6.93%	5.29%	2.57%
Max Increase	14.58%	25.55%	52.48%	63.29%	54.89%	32.84%	36.66%	18.94%	25.11%	17.00%	5.95%
Avg Days To Max Increase	17	19	18	16	16	13	16	19	15	11	7
Avg Max Decline	-1.74%	-1.65%	-1.53%	-2.57%	-0.80%	-3.02%	-1.30%	-1.83%	-1.85%	-1.60%	-0.35%
Max Decline	-7.51%	-6.19%	-3.90%	-12.08%	-3.63%	-10.01%	-4.05%	-4.97%	-9.38%	-5.00%	-2.05%
Avg Days to Max Decline	10	14	9	8	5	5	6	9	6	6	3
2007 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes				Yes	Yes
Action			Yes		Yes				Yes	Not Yet

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years	38	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower	18	21	25	23	23	28	21	25	18	19	25
Penetrated Low	13	14	16	18	22	21	14	21	14	12	17
Scenario Percentage	72%	67%	64%	78%	96%	75%	67%	84%	78%	63%	68%
Avg Max Decline	6.01%	4.89%	7.29%	7.57%	9.07%	5.15%	7.31%	6.69%	6.78%	6.09%	12.58%
Max Decline	18.43%	12.84%	13.99%	16.03%	26.94%	11.83%	26.20%	20.14%	17.94%	14.95%	49.89%
Avg Days To Max Decline	12	16	18	20	15	13	15	13	18	10	12
Avg Max Increase	-1.84%	-1.24%	-2.06%	-3.59%	-2.42%	-2.25%	-2.05%	-1.91%	-2.86%	-1.99%	-2.04%
Max Increase	-3.85%	-4.53%	-7.29%	-12.62%	-12.51%	-13.69%	-7.17%	-5.86%	-6.83%	-4.43%	-8.90%
Avg Days to Max Increase	8	10	7	11	6	8	6	6	6	5	5
2007 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	No			Yes
High	640.00	634.00	635.00	645.00	644.00	650.75	619.50	577.00	657.00	695.75	687.50
Low	610.50	607.00	589.00	612.50	601.50	604.00	561.75	550.00	554.75	641.50	642.75
Close/Last	624.50	610.50	627.00	614.75	630.50	612.00	569.25	562.25	644.25	685.50	683.50