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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for October Sugar #11(ICE) as of Jul 15, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   23 24 24 24 19 19 18 21 27 24 19
Exceeded High   16 18 21 20 16 18 12 18 22 21 15
Scenario Percentage   70% 75% 88% 83% 84% 95% 67% 86% 81% 88% 79%
Avg Max Increase   9.45% 13.04% 13.45% 12.57% 12.50% 12.47% 20.55% 17.75% 13.23% 10.54% 13.17%
Max Increase   27.99% 43.27% 73.08% 38.68% 40.03% 67.91% 55.89% 65.50% 37.14% 38.83% 37.57%
Avg Days To Max Increase   14 15 15 16 16 19 21 21 14 13 18
Avg Max Decline   -3.09% -2.27% -2.62% -2.61% -1.32% -4.25% -2.09% -2.54% -4.70% -4.55% -1.90%
Max Decline   -7.70% -8.54% -10.66% -7.27% -7.38% -13.99% -7.50% -16.61% -18.81% -11.56% -6.27%
Avg Days to Max Decline   7 9 6 8 8 9 3 7 6 11 4
2025 Contract Condition         Yes Yes Yes       Yes  
Action         Yes Yes No          
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   21 21 20 21 26 26 27 24 18 20 26
Penetrated Low   15 16 17 15 21 22 22 21 13 16 19
Scenario Percentage   71% 76% 85% 71% 81% 85% 81% 88% 72% 80% 73%
Avg Max Decline   5.97% 9.08% 10.83% 11.47% 16.01% 14.13% 11.68% 12.61% 18.70% 15.03% 11.05%
Max Decline   13.89% 20.90% 21.13% 23.93% 32.58% 29.93% 29.56% 29.16% 30.11% 34.94% 17.80%
Avg Days To Max Decline   15 16 19 22 24 20 15 21 18 22 22
Avg Max Increase   -3.68% -1.61% -3.40% -2.97% -3.10% -3.09% -2.74% -3.61% -4.62% -4.77% -3.35%
Max Increase   -10.34% -5.83% -17.43% -10.79% -9.09% -13.18% -10.78% -13.61% -21.36% -11.85% -10.36%
Avg Days to Max Increase   14 6 11 6 7 8 6 13 9 11 7
2025 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes       Yes Yes Yes    
Action   Yes Yes Yes       Yes Yes Yes    
High 20.31 20.20 19.94 19.33 17.96 19.56 19.76 19.59 18.46 17.53 16.67  
Low 17.56 18.95 18.64 17.38 16.60 17.35 17.67 17.39 17.01 16.14 15.44  
Close/Last 19.89 19.79 18.96 17.47 17.64 18.22 18.83 17.42 17.23 16.20 16.56  

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