MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for October Sugar #11(ICE) as of Jan 01, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher	26	25	23	21	22	20	22	19	21	21	17
Exceeded High	19	19	20	17	19	18	16	17	18	17	14
Scenario Percentage	73%	76%	87%	81%	86%	90%	73%	89%	86%	81%	82%
Avg Max Increase	14.73%	15.74%	19.84%	18.41%	13.03%	12.66%	18.87%	17.49%	15.67%	12.68%	10.37%
Max Increase	56.25%	58.71%	121.90%	60.02%	43.87%	67.91%	55.89%	65.50%	67.94%	44.66%	24.49%
Avg Days To Max Increase	18	17	17	16	15	18	19	19	16	11	14
Avg Max Decline	-2.95%	-2.63%	-2.82%	-3.19%	-1.50%	-4.05%	-2.51%	-2.79%	-5.19%	-3.85%	-1.57%
Max Decline	-7.70%	-8.54%	-10.66%	-8.60%	-14.62%	-13.99%	-7.50%	-16.61%	-18.81%	-11.56%	-6.27%
Avg Days to Max Decline	8	9	6	9	6	8	6	7	8	10	4
2009 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower	18	20	22	24	23	25	23	26	24	23	28
Penetrated Low	14	14	19	18	18	18	19	22	19	16	25
Scenario Percentage	78%	70%	86%	75%	78%	72%	83%	85%	79%	70%	89%
Avg Max Decline	6.82%	10.37%	12.10%	13.64%	15.63%	16.30%	16.25%	16.30%	19.94%	21.81%	19.77%
Max Decline	19.66%	21.43%	27.76%	33.23%	32.50%	35.94%	39.06%	29.16%	33.71%	38.65%	49.26%
Avg Days To Max Decline	17	16	17	19	21	21	18	19	21	24	17
Avg Max Increase	-2.99%	-1.41%	-3.22%	-2.65%	-3.64%	-2.69%	-2.92%	-3.75%	-5.93%	-4.37%	-4.14%
Max Increase	-10.34%	-5.83%	-17.43%	-10.79%	-9.09%	-13.18%	-10.78%	-12.52%	-21.36%	-9.51%	-12.37%
Avg Days to Max Increase	12	7	10	5	6	6	4	8	10	9	-18
2009 Contract Condition	Yes					Yes
Action	No					No
High	14.60	13.73	13.40	13.81	14.34	14.59	14.99	16.87	18.09	18.91	24.48
Low	11.45	12.22	11.89	12.80	13.23	13.17	13.54	14.88	15.61	16.75	18.71
Close/Last	12.79	13.00	13.30	13.50	14.22	14.08	14.94	16.54	17.85	18.61	24.39