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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for July Sugar #11(ICE) as of Jul 14, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   24 15 25 23 25 24 24 17 19 16 23
Exceeded High   18 13 21 16 17 21 21 15 14 13 18
Scenario Percentage   75% 87% 84% 70% 68% 88% 88% 88% 74% 81% 78%
Avg Max Increase   9.56% 12.98% 9.65% 9.26% 11.83% 10.95% 12.43% 12.80% 16.92% 17.52% 15.19%
Max Increase   25.74% 44.68% 37.06% 29.29% 46.30% 33.87% 49.43% 44.38% 81.05% 68.80% 42.03%
Avg Days To Max Increase   15 20 14 14 16 14 15 16 19 17 19
Avg Max Decline   -3.46% -2.28% -2.39% -2.32% -2.19% -2.73% -3.01% -2.64% -5.02% -3.69% -1.43%
Max Decline   -13.66% -4.61% -6.65% -6.47% -9.56% -12.58% -6.77% -8.48% -13.41% -10.07% -5.65%
Avg Days to Max Decline   9 10 10 6 6 7 10 10 10 5 2
2025 Contract Condition     Yes Yes       Yes Yes Yes    
Action     Yes No       Yes Yes No    
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   21 29 19 22 20 21 20 28 26 29 22
Penetrated Low   17 19 13 14 14 18 16 21 23 23 18
Scenario Percentage   81% 66% 68% 64% 70% 86% 80% 75% 88% 79% 82%
Avg Max Decline   10.54% 10.89% 8.20% 7.68% 10.69% 11.84% 12.01% 18.38% 15.23% 12.91% 11.36%
Max Decline   28.57% 25.67% 21.05% 15.18% 22.89% 24.18% 25.21% 36.14% 33.52% 35.21% 26.75%
Avg Days To Max Decline   19 18 17 16 17 19 23 24 20 17 19
Avg Max Increase   -2.03% -3.31% -4.57% -3.46% -2.07% -3.85% -3.54% -3.34% -3.36% -3.07% -2.02%
Max Increase   -6.99% -9.38% -19.74% -9.93% -7.68% -18.49% -11.91% -10.94% -12.77% -11.70% -5.71%
Avg Days to Max Increase   6 15 9 10 4 9 8 8 9 7 4
2025 Contract Condition   Yes     Yes Yes Yes       Yes Yes
Action   Yes     Yes Yes Yes       Yes Yes
High 19.10 19.27 18.73 20.69 20.56 20.24 19.56 18.05 19.55 19.72 19.43 18.29
Low 17.97 17.25 17.01 17.60 19.14 18.77 17.40 16.43 17.25 17.55 17.20 16.81
Close/Last 19.00 18.06 18.36 20.12 20.07 19.13 17.50 17.54 18.12 18.65 17.25 17.05

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