MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Sugar #11(ICE) as of Jan 21, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		23	14	24	25	27	24	23	17	17	17	23
Exceeded High		17	13	21	17	19	21	20	13	13	14	18
Scenario Percentage		74%	93%	88%	68%	70%	88%	87%	76%	76%	82%	78%
Avg Max Increase		9.42%	15.19%	11.30%	10.26%	12.44%	13.96%	13.45%	11.24%	17.46%	19.88%	15.19%
Max Increase		25.74%	44.68%	37.06%	29.29%	46.30%	73.94%	49.43%	44.38%	81.05%	68.80%	42.03%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	21	15	15	16	14	14	15	19	18	19
Avg Max Decline		-3.61%	-2.18%	-2.25%	-2.36%	-2.56%	-2.85%	-3.27%	-2.79%	-5.33%	-3.23%	-1.43%
Max Decline		-13.66%	-7.11%	-6.65%	-6.47%	-9.56%	-12.58%	-8.70%	-8.48%	-13.41%	-10.07%	-5.65%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	11	10	7	6	7	10	11	11	5	2
2021 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		22	30	20	20	18	21	21	28	28	28	22
Penetrated Low		16	20	13	13	12	19	17	21	24	22	18
Scenario Percentage		73%	67%	65%	65%	67%	90%	81%	75%	86%	79%	82%
Avg Max Decline		12.72%	11.86%	8.81%	7.12%	9.88%	11.43%	12.77%	18.50%	14.94%	13.43%	11.37%
Max Decline		32.01%	30.34%	21.05%	15.18%	22.89%	24.18%	25.21%	36.14%	33.52%	35.21%	26.75%
Avg Days To Max Decline		20	18	15	15	18	19	22	23	21	17	18
Avg Max Increase		-2.07%	-3.09%	-4.81%	-3.15%	-2.17%	-3.66%	-3.33%	-3.38%	-3.23%	-2.79%	-1.86%
Max Increase		-6.99%	-9.38%	-19.74%	-9.93%	-7.68%	-18.49%	-11.91%	-10.94%	-12.77%	-11.70%	-5.69%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	14	9	10	4	9	8	6	9	6	4
2021 Contract Condition					Yes					Yes
Action					No					Yes
High	12.59	12.68	13.07	13.05	13.59	13.79	14.25	15.13	16.73	16.10	17.79	18.25
Low	11.43	11.60	12.47	12.20	12.64	12.73	13.23	14.14	14.62	14.68	14.67	16.54
Close/Last	12.00	12.61	12.79	12.90	12.82	13.31	14.19	14.60	15.85	14.77	16.98	17.36