MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Sugar #11(ICE) as of Oct 06, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		21	29	23	19	23	26	25	22	25	19	19
Exceeded High		16	22	19	17	20	19	19	17	20	15	8
Scenario Percentage		76%	76%	83%	89%	87%	73%	76%	77%	80%	79%	42%
Avg Max Increase		13.70%	11.14%	10.49%	14.72%	12.83%	11.09%	13.70%	12.99%	14.41%	11.65%	10.61%
Max Increase		45.88%	31.94%	32.13%	49.89%	41.73%	32.18%	51.54%	34.80%	46.58%	52.06%	23.19%
Avg Days To Max Increase		20	19	18	18	17	14	19	15	15	15	18
Avg Max Decline		-0.78%	-3.13%	-3.72%	-3.10%	-2.23%	-3.32%	-3.40%	-4.23%	-2.89%	-3.21%	-4.11%
Max Decline		-3.88%	-15.43%	-12.45%	-12.32%	-7.12%	-14.75%	-10.23%	-14.06%	-7.97%	-11.65%	-13.37%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	9	8	10	9	7	11	10	6	8	5
2023 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		No			No			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		24	16	22	26	22	19	20	23	20	26	26
Penetrated Low		19	12	14	17	17	11	15	18	15	19	20
Scenario Percentage		79%	75%	64%	65%	77%	58%	75%	78%	75%	73%	77%
Avg Max Decline		10.98%	13.60%	12.38%	11.50%	8.96%	7.84%	10.22%	12.80%	11.45%	17.45%	11.49%
Max Decline		24.63%	25.43%	28.99%	26.68%	22.20%	16.34%	24.24%	24.35%	24.79%	36.31%	22.44%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	15	19	17	14	15	18	20	22	21	22
Avg Max Increase		-2.57%	-2.03%	-2.61%	-3.37%	-4.25%	-4.19%	-2.61%	-3.98%	-4.55%	-3.43%	-2.77%
Max Increase		-9.83%	-9.96%	-8.21%	-10.00%	-19.73%	-10.06%	-7.14%	-17.49%	-13.39%	-9.14%	-10.69%
Avg Days to Max Increase		11	5	11	13	9	12	4	9	10	6	5
2023 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes
Action			Yes	Yes		Yes	No				No
High	19.78	19.64	19.53	18.87	17.99	17.68	17.96	19.21	19.64	20.48	20.52	22.36
Low	18.45	18.22	17.90	16.90	16.73	16.70	16.64	16.95	18.16	17.89	19.43	20.04
Close/Last	18.78	19.23	18.21	17.06	17.25	16.94	16.89	18.56	18.72	20.44	20.07	22.25