MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Sugar #11(ICE) as of Jan 21, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		20	30	22	18	23	27	26	21	25	19	18
Exceeded High		16	22	18	17	20	20	20	16	20	15	7
Scenario Percentage		80%	73%	82%	94%	87%	74%	77%	76%	80%	79%	39%
Avg Max Increase		13.92%	10.89%	10.25%	14.72%	12.83%	11.04%	13.09%	13.20%	14.15%	11.65%	10.70%
Max Increase		45.88%	31.94%	32.13%	49.89%	41.73%	32.18%	51.54%	34.80%	46.58%	52.06%	19.12%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	18	17	18	17	14	18	16	15	15	17
Avg Max Decline		-0.96%	-2.94%	-3.93%	-2.86%	-2.23%	-3.41%	-3.59%	-4.22%	-3.13%	-3.21%	-4.54%
Max Decline		-6.54%	-15.43%	-12.45%	-12.32%	-7.12%	-14.75%	-10.23%	-14.06%	-9.78%	-11.65%	-13.37%
Avg Days to Max Decline		3	8	8	9	9	7	10	11	7	8	5
2021 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		25	15	23	27	22	18	19	24	20	26	27
Penetrated Low		20	11	14	18	16	11	14	19	16	20	21
Scenario Percentage		80%	73%	61%	67%	73%	61%	74%	79%	80%	77%	78%
Avg Max Decline		10.94%	14.09%	14.70%	12.57%	9.53%	7.98%	10.60%	12.46%	12.41%	18.92%	12.82%
Max Decline		24.63%	25.43%	34.55%	30.87%	22.20%	16.34%	24.24%	24.35%	26.77%	40.91%	32.77%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	16	20	17	13	17	18	19	22	24	24
Avg Max Increase		-2.57%	-1.89%	-2.22%	-3.08%	-4.54%	-4.42%	-2.34%	-3.87%	-4.27%	-3.31%	-2.75%
Max Increase		-9.83%	-9.96%	-8.21%	-10.00%	-19.73%	-10.06%	-7.14%	-17.49%	-13.39%	-9.14%	-10.69%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	4	11	12	6	11	4	9	9	6	5
2021 Contract Condition												Yes
Action												Not Yet
High	11.61	11.87	12.75	12.97	13.44	13.38	14.17	14.57	14.75	15.79	17.52	16.70
Low	10.40	10.96	11.51	11.80	12.74	12.33	13.05	13.28	13.53	14.57	15.11	14.67
Close/Last	11.31	11.55	12.27	12.91	13.06	13.22	13.39	13.82	14.68	15.08	16.45	14.77