MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for November Rough Rice(CBOT) as of Dec 30, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		22	25	29	29	30	30	30	30	30	31	31
Closed Higher		10	11	15	17	15	13	11	16	13	16	12
Exceeded High		7	9	13	14	9	10	7	13	10	13	9
Scenario Percentage		70%	82%	87%	82%	60%	77%	64%	81%	77%	81%	75%
Avg Max Increase		8.98%	8.59%	10.19%	10.22%	6.79%	6.56%	9.44%	14.55%	17.62%	14.20%	6.90%
Max Increase		23.64%	21.75%	32.87%	26.57%	17.97%	12.16%	21.51%	73.73%	88.47%	77.97%	20.23%
Avg Days To Max Increase		13	17	20	18	13	18	9	19	20	10	11
Avg Max Decline		-0.99%	-1.44%	-1.19%	-1.39%	-1.69%	-2.69%	-1.73%	-3.69%	-3.62%	-1.70%	-1.30%
Max Decline		-4.57%	-7.59%	-4.56%	-3.52%	-5.44%	-12.11%	-3.40%	-8.92%	-7.67%	-5.53%	-5.72%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	5	6	7	6	15	8	12	9	7	2
2016 Contract Condition						Yes	Yes				Yes
Action						Yes	No				Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		22	25	29	29	30	30	30	30	30	31	31
Closed Lower		12	14	14	12	15	17	19	14	17	15	19
Penetrated Low		9	13	12	9	11	13	14	12	11	11	8
Scenario Percentage		75%	93%	86%	75%	73%	76%	74%	86%	65%	73%	42%
Avg Max Decline		6.61%	6.64%	8.11%	9.59%	9.11%	9.85%	9.71%	9.86%	8.73%	9.39%	4.45%
Max Decline		18.79%	16.15%	22.83%	27.06%	20.73%	22.47%	25.00%	24.70%	16.14%	25.91%	7.41%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	19	21	14	15	17	19	19	18	12	10
Avg Max Increase		-1.40%	-1.50%	-1.73%	-3.01%	-1.61%	-2.57%	-2.82%	-4.52%	-2.77%	-1.85%	-1.41%
Max Increase		-3.92%	-8.99%	-5.85%	-6.20%	-5.49%	-8.33%	-14.10%	-15.71%	-5.22%	-8.21%	-4.62%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	9	7	9	13	6	9	9	7	5	2
2016 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	No			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
High	12.82	12.41	12.48	12.04	11.35	11.49	12.52	12.35	11.17	10.70	9.97	10.47
Low	12.21	11.64	11.52	11.32	10.15	10.19	11.19	10.90	10.00	9.39	9.35	9.78
Close/Last	12.56	12.39	12.11	11.36	10.35	11.33	11.46	10.93	10.22	9.43	9.88	9.86