MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for November Rough Rice(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2015
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		20	23	27	27	28	28	28	28	28	29	29
Closed Higher		10	11	14	16	14	12	10	15	12	14	12
Exceeded High		7	9	12	14	8	10	6	12	9	11	9
Scenario Percentage		70%	82%	86%	88%	57%	83%	60%	80%	75%	79%	75%
Avg Max Increase		8.98%	8.59%	10.67%	10.22%	6.32%	6.56%	8.48%	14.62%	18.41%	16.08%	6.90%
Max Increase		23.64%	21.75%	32.87%	26.57%	17.97%	12.16%	21.51%	73.73%	88.47%	77.97%	20.23%
Avg Days To Max Increase		13	17	19	18	12	18	9	19	21	9	11
Avg Max Decline		-0.99%	-1.44%	-1.10%	-1.39%	-1.74%	-2.69%	-1.92%	-3.76%	-3.65%	-1.93%	-1.30%
Max Decline		-4.57%	-7.59%	-4.56%	-3.52%	-5.44%	-12.11%	-3.40%	-8.92%	-7.67%	-5.53%	-5.72%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	5	5	7	6	15	9	11	10	8	2
2014 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	No					Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		20	23	27	27	28	28	28	28	28	29	29
Closed Lower		10	12	13	11	14	16	18	13	16	15	17
Penetrated Low		7	11	11	9	10	13	13	11	10	11	7
Scenario Percentage		70%	92%	85%	82%	71%	81%	72%	85%	63%	73%	41%
Avg Max Decline		6.21%	6.21%	7.91%	9.59%	9.06%	9.85%	9.38%	9.99%	9.52%	9.39%	4.03%
Max Decline		18.79%	14.69%	22.83%	27.06%	20.73%	22.47%	25.00%	24.70%	16.14%	25.91%	6.95%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	19	21	14	15	17	18	21	20	12	10
Avg Max Increase		-1.69%	-1.82%	-1.87%	-3.01%	-1.78%	-2.57%	-2.86%	-4.50%	-2.69%	-1.85%	-1.64%
Max Increase		-3.92%	-8.99%	-5.85%	-6.20%	-5.49%	-8.33%	-14.10%	-15.71%	-5.22%	-8.21%	-4.62%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	10	7	9	14	6	9	9	8	5	2
2014 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Not Yet
High	14.75	14.56	14.10	14.06	14.40	14.71	14.69	14.56	13.91	13.19	12.91	12.84
Low	14.32	14.04	13.63	13.62	13.85	14.26	14.46	13.59	13.01	12.62	12.20	11.14
Close/Last	14.55	14.04	13.86	13.89	14.40	14.69	14.48	13.75	13.21	12.67	12.75	12.01