MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for November Rough Rice(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2013
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		18	21	25	25	26	26	26	26	26	27	27
Closed Higher		10	10	13	15	13	11	9	14	12	13	12
Exceeded High		7	8	11	13	8	9	6	12	9	11	9
Scenario Percentage		70%	80%	85%	87%	62%	82%	67%	86%	75%	85%	75%
Avg Max Increase		8.98%	9.64%	11.10%	10.84%	6.32%	6.54%	8.48%	14.62%	18.41%	16.08%	6.90%
Max Increase		23.64%	21.75%	32.87%	26.57%	17.97%	12.16%	21.51%	73.73%	88.47%	77.97%	20.23%
Avg Days To Max Increase		13	18	18	17	12	19	9	19	21	9	11
Avg Max Decline		-0.99%	-1.55%	-1.18%	-1.43%	-1.74%	-3.00%	-1.92%	-3.76%	-3.65%	-1.93%	-1.30%
Max Decline		-4.57%	-7.59%	-4.56%	-3.52%	-5.44%	-12.11%	-3.40%	-8.92%	-7.67%	-5.53%	-5.72%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	5	5	7	6	17	9	11	10	8	2
2012 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		18	21	25	25	26	26	26	26	26	27	27
Closed Lower		8	11	12	10	13	15	17	12	14	14	15
Penetrated Low		5	10	10	9	10	12	12	10	8	10	7
Scenario Percentage		63%	91%	83%	90%	77%	80%	71%	83%	57%	71%	47%
Avg Max Decline		7.95%	6.66%	8.19%	9.59%	9.06%	9.82%	9.47%	10.22%	9.55%	10.04%	4.03%
Max Decline		18.79%	14.69%	22.83%	27.06%	20.73%	22.47%	25.00%	24.70%	16.14%	25.91%	6.95%
Avg Days To Max Decline		23	21	21	14	15	17	18	22	21	13	10
Avg Max Increase		-2.03%	-2.02%	-2.03%	-3.01%	-1.78%	-2.74%	-3.00%	-4.97%	-2.98%	-2.00%	-1.64%
Max Increase		-3.92%	-8.99%	-5.85%	-6.20%	-5.49%	-8.33%	-14.10%	-15.71%	-5.22%	-8.21%	-4.62%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	11	8	9	14	6	9	10	7	5	2
2012 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes				Yes			Yes		Yes
Action		No	Yes				Yes			Yes		Yes
High	16.46	15.32	15.46	15.30	15.99	16.43	16.38	15.43	16.12	16.37	15.49	15.45
Low	14.90	14.16	14.72	14.38	14.65	15.35	14.75	14.27	14.76	15.11	14.55	14.67
Close/Last	15.26	15.21	14.72	15.19	15.52	15.61	14.75	14.76	15.90	15.29	15.48	14.83