MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Rough Rice(CBOT) as of Jan 21, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		22	25	31	32	35	35	35	35	35	35	35
Closed Higher		7	16	11	15	15	22	18	15	12	19	14
Exceeded High		3	10	9	14	13	20	11	13	8	13	9
Scenario Percentage		43%	63%	82%	93%	87%	91%	61%	87%	67%	68%	64%
Avg Max Increase		5.31%	6.98%	8.09%	6.93%	9.97%	9.12%	7.37%	6.66%	8.61%	11.57%	8.87%
Max Increase		11.11%	25.44%	23.19%	23.16%	34.06%	26.96%	22.02%	11.61%	21.03%	65.96%	39.29%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	20	17	17	18	17	11	18	14	13	12
Avg Max Decline		-1.30%	-1.27%	-1.95%	-1.86%	-1.22%	-1.76%	-1.70%	-3.77%	-2.84%	-2.67%	-1.68%
Max Decline		-2.87%	-7.69%	-4.80%	-6.96%	-4.59%	-6.85%	-5.28%	-12.46%	-5.52%	-9.44%	-3.97%
Avg Days to Max Decline		2	7	16	6	9	11	5	14	11	6	5
2021 Contract Condition					Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes
Action					Yes		Yes	Yes			Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		22	25	31	32	35	35	35	35	35	35	35
Closed Lower		15	9	19	17	20	13	17	19	22	16	21
Penetrated Low		11	7	15	16	16	9	14	17	17	11	9
Scenario Percentage		73%	78%	79%	94%	80%	69%	82%	89%	77%	69%	43%
Avg Max Decline		6.14%	7.20%	6.70%	7.06%	7.22%	11.45%	7.57%	10.08%	9.15%	9.57%	3.52%
Max Decline		16.73%	12.53%	19.93%	17.53%	21.93%	28.05%	22.07%	23.56%	25.86%	24.54%	6.53%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	25	16	16	22	14	15	17	20	17	10
Avg Max Increase		-1.07%	-1.35%	-1.24%	-1.37%	-2.11%	-2.94%	-3.14%	-3.11%	-3.82%	-2.43%	-1.30%
Max Increase		-4.70%	-3.16%	-4.47%	-7.30%	-7.03%	-6.49%	-11.65%	-8.59%	-16.01%	-7.27%	-3.52%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	7	6	8	11	8	18	7	10	6	3
2021 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No		No			Yes	No		Yes
High	12.47	12.30	12.10	12.10	12.87	12.87	13.00	13.78	14.21	14.00	13.85	13.69
Low	12.20	11.92	11.82	11.58	11.92	12.59	12.71	12.88	13.34	12.50	12.75	13.01
Close/Last	12.20	11.94	11.92	11.91	12.87	12.76	13.00	13.66	13.55	13.48	13.68	13.13