MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Rough Rice(CBOT) as of Nov 09, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		21	24	30	31	34	34	34	34	34	34	34
Closed Higher		7	16	11	14	15	21	17	15	12	18	14
Exceeded High		3	10	9	13	13	19	10	13	8	13	9
Scenario Percentage		43%	63%	82%	93%	87%	90%	59%	87%	67%	72%	64%
Avg Max Increase		5.31%	6.98%	8.09%	7.39%	9.97%	9.11%	7.70%	6.66%	8.61%	11.57%	8.87%
Max Increase		11.11%	25.44%	23.19%	23.16%	34.06%	26.96%	22.02%	11.61%	21.03%	65.96%	39.29%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	20	17	16	18	17	12	18	14	13	12
Avg Max Decline		-1.30%	-1.27%	-1.95%	-1.84%	-1.22%	-1.81%	-1.81%	-3.77%	-2.84%	-2.67%	-1.68%
Max Decline		-2.87%	-7.69%	-4.80%	-6.96%	-4.59%	-6.85%	-5.28%	-12.46%	-5.52%	-9.44%	-3.97%
Avg Days to Max Decline		2	7	16	6	9	11	5	14	11	6	5
2020 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes			Yes
Action			Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes			Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		21	24	30	31	34	34	34	34	34	34	34
Closed Lower		14	8	18	17	19	13	17	18	21	16	20
Penetrated Low		10	6	15	16	16	9	14	16	17	11	8
Scenario Percentage		71%	75%	83%	94%	84%	69%	82%	89%	81%	69%	40%
Avg Max Decline		6.45%	7.93%	6.70%	7.06%	7.22%	11.45%	7.57%	10.23%	9.15%	9.57%	3.78%
Max Decline		16.73%	12.53%	19.93%	17.53%	21.93%	28.05%	22.07%	23.56%	25.86%	24.54%	6.53%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	25	16	16	22	14	15	17	20	17	11
Avg Max Increase		-1.04%	-1.32%	-1.24%	-1.37%	-2.11%	-2.94%	-3.14%	-3.27%	-3.82%	-2.43%	-1.55%
Max Increase		-4.70%	-3.16%	-4.47%	-7.30%	-7.03%	-6.49%	-11.65%	-8.59%	-16.01%	-7.27%	-3.52%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	8	6	8	11	8	18	7	10	6	4
2020 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		No		Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes	Not Yet
High	12.30	12.11	12.05	12.05	12.27	12.29	12.15	12.25	12.41	12.78	12.39	12.73
Low	11.88	11.68	11.76	11.90	11.86	11.90	11.47	11.80	11.83	11.65	11.22	11.46
Close/Last	12.04	11.91	12.05	12.02	12.17	12.03	12.10	11.92	12.41	12.23	11.60	12.49