MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Rough Rice(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		19	22	28	29	32	32	32	32	32	32	32
Closed Higher		6	14	11	12	15	19	17	13	12	17	13
Exceeded High		3	8	9	11	13	17	10	11	8	13	8
Scenario Percentage		50%	57%	82%	92%	87%	89%	59%	85%	67%	76%	62%
Avg Max Increase		5.31%	8.35%	8.09%	8.32%	9.97%	9.47%	7.70%	7.06%	8.61%	11.57%	8.47%
Max Increase		11.11%	25.44%	23.19%	23.16%	34.06%	26.96%	22.02%	11.61%	21.03%	65.96%	39.29%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	21	17	16	18	16	12	19	14	13	12
Avg Max Decline		-1.30%	-1.48%	-1.95%	-1.55%	-1.22%	-1.61%	-1.81%	-4.08%	-2.84%	-2.67%	-1.61%
Max Decline		-2.87%	-7.69%	-4.80%	-6.96%	-4.59%	-6.85%	-5.28%	-12.46%	-5.52%	-9.44%	-3.97%
Avg Days to Max Decline		2	4	16	5	9	10	5	13	11	6	4
2018 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes
Action			Yes		Yes		Yes	No			Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		19	22	28	29	32	32	32	32	32	32	32
Closed Lower		13	8	16	17	17	13	15	18	19	15	19
Penetrated Low		10	6	13	16	15	9	13	16	15	11	8
Scenario Percentage		77%	75%	81%	94%	88%	69%	87%	89%	79%	73%	42%
Avg Max Decline		6.45%	7.93%	7.27%	7.06%	7.39%	11.45%	7.98%	10.23%	9.41%	9.50%	3.65%
Max Decline		16.73%	12.53%	19.93%	17.53%	21.93%	28.05%	22.07%	23.56%	25.86%	23.73%	5.57%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	25	17	16	22	14	15	17	19	17	11
Avg Max Increase		-1.04%	-1.32%	-1.08%	-1.37%	-2.19%	-2.94%	-2.83%	-3.27%	-3.80%	-2.43%	-1.55%
Max Increase		-4.70%	-3.16%	-4.31%	-7.30%	-7.03%	-6.49%	-11.65%	-8.59%	-16.01%	-7.27%	-3.52%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	8	6	8	10	8	16	7	9	6	4
2018 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes		Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes		Not Yet
High	12.35	11.89	12.01	12.25	11.98	12.00	11.90	12.32	12.27	11.70	12.12	12.03
Low	11.43	11.10	11.09	11.70	11.30	11.59	11.58	11.79	11.18	10.24	11.09	9.90
Close/Last	11.53	11.10	11.97	11.73	11.97	11.75	11.81	12.26	11.34	11.23	11.92	10.83