MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Rough Rice(CBOT) as of Dec 30, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		17	20	26	27	30	30	30	30	30	30	30
Closed Higher		5	13	11	11	15	17	16	12	11	15	12
Exceeded High		3	7	9	10	13	15	10	10	7	12	7
Scenario Percentage		60%	54%	82%	91%	87%	88%	63%	83%	64%	80%	58%
Avg Max Increase		5.31%	9.21%	8.09%	9.12%	9.97%	9.72%	7.70%	6.83%	8.94%	12.19%	9.44%
Max Increase		11.11%	25.44%	23.19%	23.16%	34.06%	26.96%	22.02%	11.61%	21.03%	65.96%	39.29%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	22	17	17	18	15	12	18	12	14	12
Avg Max Decline		-1.30%	-1.42%	-1.95%	-1.66%	-1.22%	-1.36%	-1.81%	-4.22%	-2.95%	-2.70%	-1.67%
Max Decline		-2.87%	-7.69%	-4.80%	-6.96%	-4.59%	-4.31%	-5.28%	-12.46%	-5.52%	-9.44%	-3.97%
Avg Days to Max Decline		2	5	16	5	9	10	5	13	10	6	4
2016 Contract Condition			Yes					Yes
Action			No					Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		17	20	26	27	30	30	30	30	30	30	30
Closed Lower		12	7	14	16	15	13	14	17	18	15	18
Penetrated Low		9	5	11	15	13	9	13	15	14	11	8
Scenario Percentage		75%	71%	79%	94%	87%	69%	93%	88%	78%	73%	44%
Avg Max Decline		7.15%	8.67%	8.09%	7.43%	8.13%	11.45%	7.98%	10.26%	9.24%	9.57%	3.78%
Max Decline		16.73%	12.53%	19.93%	17.53%	21.93%	28.05%	22.07%	23.56%	25.86%	24.54%	6.53%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	25	18	16	22	14	15	17	19	17	11
Avg Max Increase		-0.95%	-1.02%	-0.98%	-1.43%	-1.88%	-2.94%	-2.83%	-3.43%	-3.50%	-2.43%	-1.55%
Max Increase		-4.70%	-3.16%	-2.94%	-7.30%	-6.00%	-6.49%	-11.65%	-8.59%	-16.01%	-7.27%	-3.52%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	8	5	9	9	8	16	8	9	6	4
2016 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	13.24	13.29	12.82	12.54	12.34	12.01	11.15	11.50	12.35	12.14	10.95	10.65
Low	11.94	12.10	12.21	11.62	11.27	11.14	9.90	10.00	11.00	10.59	9.72	9.16
Close/Last	13.15	12.24	12.56	12.37	12.01	11.22	10.15	11.26	11.19	10.65	9.94	9.20