MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Rough Rice(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	8	11	17	18	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
Closed Higher	1	9	8	8	10	11	10	9	8	9	7
Exceeded High	1	6	7	7	9	10	7	7	5	6	3
Scenario Percentage	100%	67%	88%	88%	90%	91%	70%	78%	62%	67%	43%
Avg Max Increase	2.00%	8.84%	5.37%	8.85%	8.72%	9.87%	8.47%	6.19%	8.00%	16.36%	14.62%
Max Increase	2.00%	25.44%	11.44%	19.24%	23.52%	22.62%	22.02%	11.61%	21.03%	65.96%	39.29%
Avg Days To Max Increase	14	21	16	18	15	12	12	16	10	14	14
Avg Max Decline	-0.30%	-1.61%	-1.84%	-2.15%	-0.45%	-1.06%	-1.52%	-3.49%	-2.86%	-2.70%	-1.44%
Max Decline	-0.30%	-7.69%	-4.42%	-6.96%	-2.50%	-4.31%	-5.28%	-11.83%	-4.54%	-9.44%	-1.79%
Avg Days to Max Decline	4	5	19	6	8	8	4	10	13	3	5
2007 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes				No		Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	8	11	17	18	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
Closed Lower	7	2	8	10	11	10	11	11	13	12	14
Penetrated Low	4	2	6	9	9	8	11	10	12	8	8
Scenario Percentage	57%	100%	75%	90%	82%	80%	100%	91%	92%	67%	57%
Avg Max Decline	4.74%	5.04%	10.12%	7.95%	7.69%	11.60%	6.53%	9.74%	8.99%	10.76%	5.74%
Max Decline	7.41%	8.82%	19.93%	16.67%	21.93%	28.05%	17.64%	23.56%	25.86%	23.73%	20.37%
Avg Days To Max Decline	9	21	22	18	23	14	14	15	17	16	12
Avg Max Increase	0.55%	-0.11%	-1.11%	-1.47%	-2.33%	-2.55%	-3.24%	-3.32%	-3.76%	-2.15%	-3.78%
Max Increase	0.00%	-0.23%	-2.94%	-6.50%	-6.00%	-6.49%	-11.65%	-8.42%	-16.01%	-7.27%	-11.75%
Avg Days to Max Increase	2	1	5	12	11	8	19	9	9	3	7
2007 Contract Condition	Yes					Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action	No					No	Yes	Yes		Not Yet
High	10.33	10.35	10.45	10.75	11.15	11.38	10.95	11.13	11.30	10.70	10.92
Low	10.10	10.15	10.25	10.38	10.63	10.35	10.53	10.46	10.39	10.13	10.18
Close/Last	10.25	10.27	10.44	10.67	11.04	10.74	10.63	10.61	10.68	10.42	10.85