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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for July Rough Rice(CBOT) as of Jul 17, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   24 30 31 34 35 35 35 35 35 36 36
Closed Higher   14 16 11 23 16 17 11 18 20 15 13
Exceeded High   11 11 7 15 12 12 11 15 12 11 7
Scenario Percentage   79% 69% 64% 65% 75% 71% 100% 83% 60% 73% 54%
Avg Max Increase   6.25% 5.59% 7.01% 6.85% 9.46% 7.55% 13.84% 13.67% 13.73% 10.97% 4.95%
Max Increase   26.96% 17.78% 13.31% 17.80% 24.41% 33.38% 40.53% 30.64% 59.33% 36.89% 9.55%
Avg Days To Max Increase   17 13 11 18 17 15 21 19 9 11 14
Avg Max Decline   -1.59% -1.14% -1.55% -1.23% -2.48% -2.09% -3.27% -3.06% -2.60% -1.88% -0.92%
Max Decline   -6.01% -5.05% -5.11% -4.76% -11.53% -7.84% -11.92% -7.78% -6.82% -13.01% -3.96%
Avg Days to Max Decline   8 10 6 7 10 11 10 11 5 7 1
2025 Contract Condition     Yes   Yes       Yes   Yes  
Action     No   No       No   Yes  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   24 30 31 34 35 35 35 35 35 36 36
Closed Lower   10 14 20 11 19 18 24 17 15 21 23
Penetrated Low   7 12 15 10 16 17 18 11 11 16 9
Scenario Percentage   70% 86% 75% 91% 84% 94% 75% 65% 73% 76% 39%
Avg Max Decline   6.31% 5.96% 5.10% 6.85% 9.17% 9.52% 8.81% 9.76% 8.50% 8.17% 4.77%
Max Decline   12.38% 12.73% 15.20% 14.46% 22.56% 18.76% 19.56% 30.58% 21.10% 20.07% 10.04%
Avg Days To Max Decline   16 15 12 20 16 14 20 15 11 12 10
Avg Max Increase   -0.60% -1.21% -1.65% -2.75% -1.59% -1.78% -2.90% -3.41% -4.85% -2.71% -2.23%
Max Increase   -2.36% -6.85% -4.90% -13.34% -5.08% -10.88% -7.38% -9.42% -27.43% -11.68% -7.69%
Avg Days to Max Increase   9 9 9 11 7 9 11 9 16 6 2
2025 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes   Yes Yes Yes   Yes   Yes
Action   Yes   Yes   Yes Yes Yes   No   Yes
High 16.21 16.18 16.16 15.98 15.64 15.60 15.20 14.39 14.37 13.92 13.53 13.80
Low 15.27 15.58 15.54 15.38 15.03 14.29 14.05 13.64 13.27 12.25 12.27 12.86
Close/Last 16.21 15.58 16.06 15.38 15.56 14.55 14.14 13.75 13.82 13.22 13.49 12.95

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