MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Rough Rice(CBOT) as of Dec 31, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		10	16	17	20	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
Closed Higher		6	8	7	12	11	9	7	9	12	9	7
Exceeded High		4	5	6	8	8	5	7	8	7	7	5
Scenario Percentage		67%	63%	86%	67%	73%	56%	100%	89%	58%	78%	71%
Avg Max Increase		6.01%	6.00%	7.36%	9.21%	10.57%	11.02%	17.80%	16.33%	11.62%	8.96%	4.45%
Max Increase		8.45%	12.29%	13.31%	17.80%	24.41%	33.38%	40.53%	30.64%	24.53%	22.37%	9.55%
Avg Days To Max Increase		24	11	11	18	17	21	19	18	10	11	15
Avg Max Decline		-2.97%	-0.40%	-0.98%	-0.74%	-2.32%	-1.57%	-2.55%	-2.14%	-2.95%	-0.56%	-1.35%
Max Decline		-6.01%	-1.53%	-5.11%	-1.57%	-11.53%	-2.98%	-10.82%	-5.52%	-6.82%	-3.76%	-3.96%
Avg Days to Max Decline		13	8	7	5	10	11	6	9	4	4	1
2010 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes					Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	Yes					No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		10	16	17	20	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
Closed Lower		4	8	10	8	10	12	14	12	9	12	14
Penetrated Low		2	7	7	8	8	11	11	9	9	9	6
Scenario Percentage		50%	88%	70%	100%	80%	92%	79%	75%	100%	75%	43%
Avg Max Decline		11.49%	6.47%	7.29%	6.98%	12.27%	11.06%	9.22%	10.49%	8.15%	9.46%	5.34%
Max Decline		12.38%	12.27%	15.20%	14.46%	22.56%	18.76%	19.56%	30.58%	21.10%	20.07%	10.04%
Avg Days To Max Decline		26	14	10	20	23	18	22	15	11	12	12
Avg Max Increase		-1.08%	-0.55%	-1.38%	-3.04%	-1.85%	-2.57%	-3.20%	-3.47%	-5.75%	-2.64%	-3.41%
Max Increase		-2.36%	-2.04%	-4.75%	-13.34%	-5.08%	-10.88%	-7.38%	-9.42%	-27.43%	-11.68%	-7.69%
Avg Days to Max Increase		4	7	7	13	7	12	8	8	19	6	3
2010 Contract Condition			Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action			No			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Not Yet
High	14.62	14.90	15.06	15.37	16.23	16.65	15.65	15.02	14.20	13.71	12.66	11.73
Low	13.09	14.30	14.00	14.08	15.37	15.11	13.98	13.87	12.43	12.20	11.50	9.30
Close/Last	14.62	14.90	14.28	15.37	16.08	15.37	14.73	14.04	12.53	12.61	11.64	9.43